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It seems that we will have to learn to live with this virus – or so the science editors of The Washington Post claimed earlier this week. While I cannot say whether or not they are right, it is clear that more and more companies are exploring what this means for the workplace.
Unilever choosing London above Rotterdam is a massive economic blow for the Netherlands. And a crying shame too, because Unilever is leading the pack in the race for long-term value creation and sustainability. But in many ways London undeniably carries more weight as a global economic centre than Rotterdam.
Europe is about to spend 750 billion euros – around 6 percent of the European economy – to stimulate the restart of the economy. It’s a realistic plan, in my eyes. The European Commission calculated that economic growth could accelerate by 1.8 percent next year and even 2.3 percent up to 2024.
The Dutch government has announced that every region should follow its own route towards relaxing the restrictions. This is a logical decision. Infection rates, hospital capacities and numerous other influencing factors show considerable differences across the country. Why then should the stricter rules that the Randstad conurbation and the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Limburg demand be imposed on Groningen and Twente, where the data are considerably less serious?
The air is tingling with a sense of cheerful optimism. Throughout the entire Western world, countries are cautiously lifting their lockdowns. Governments, with their frequent references to “a war against the virus” and recovery “based on a Marshall Plan”, are reinforcing expectations of reconstruction optimism and strong recovery. Not only can companies reopen for business, they will benefit from all the demand that has accumulated. Investors are finding it almost impossible to decide between numerous new opportunities. In many cases, reconstruction– after a war, or following a natural disaster – is driven by large government projects to create jobs, turning a sharp recession into strong growth. The economic term for this pattern (which is caused in part by the simple fact that steep growth is necessary if you are starting from zero) is V-shaped recovery.
“May 2020 will go down in global history as the month in which most societies tentatively got back to work again. In the Netherlands, France and Switzerland, primary schools will open again after the May holiday. In Paris, people are allowed back onto the streets again without needing a note to explaining what they are doing. Even Italy announced yesterday that it would be cautiously opening its doors again in early May.
It’s impossible to imagine a greater contrast. One moment I’m videoconferencing with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and listening to her impassioned account of how Europe has already showered governments, businesses and employees with financial support – 3 billion euros in the last few weeks – to help them through the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis. The next I’m on the phone with my friend Martijn, a business owner. His landlord refuses to defer or even lower the rent, and he’s at risk of going under.
We took a gamble, and we lost. But what was it precisely that we lost? The Netherlands found itself arguing, almost by its own small self, that economic support should be made contingent on reforms. On Thursday night, however, the country was put in its place with overwhelming force.
So far, 40,000 business owners have signed up for the 4,000-euro emergency relief scheme for sectors affected by the present crisis. Assuming they have filled out the paperwork correctly, the money will be in their accounts in three weeks’ time. It might seem a lot, until you realise the scale of the problems facing these businesses.
If they did not already know, supermarkets will find out where society’s vulnerable members live.
“Like most people in the Netherlands, I have a great deal of faith in the government. That’s what makes the measures so very effective compared with neighbouring countries.”
“It seems like such a simple question – will the virus outbreak push the cost of groceries up? I was on the Dutch TV programme AD Ochtendshow this week when that question came in from someone interviewed on the street.
The outbreak of the coronavirus has shocked an already weakened global economy. ABN AMRO Group Economics has therefore downgraded its economic forecasts and made an extensive analysis of the situation.
The Vix index reflects how worried the markets are. This week it tripled, amid concerns about the coronavirus outbreak. Stock prices have been in a tailspin since Monday, and although that might seem logical given what is happening, in fact it is odd, considering that the markets were climbing steadily before Monday. So what triggered this turnaround?
With a radical overhaul of the tax system, we can really make the switch to a circular economy, says Hein Brekelmans from ABN AMRO's Sustainable Finance Desk. “Our current tax system incentivises non-sustainable entrepreneurship. The aim of Ex'tax is to change that.”
