Is that Godot in the distance?
The global economy has been characterised by strengthening confidence data and lagging hard data in recent months. I have been writing about why this was happening for weeks, if not months. Today I want to address several different questions. First, when will confidence data stop rising? Second, will hard data follow and if so when? Third, do we have useful canaries in the coal mine and what is happening to them. Last, I want to briefly talk about what Chinese regulators are doing against bogus divorce.