The BRIC countries, while remaining important markets for sellers, have lost some of their shine. They are losing out to other emerging markets that are outperforming them in various areas and becoming more and more important. ABN AMRO expects this shift in the economic focus to continue. Today the bank presents a Top 16 of promising countries for the Dutch business sector.
ABN AMRO has divided the emerging countries into two groups. The first consists of larger countries that over the past ten years have recorded an average growth of at least 5 percent per year, and are expected to grow by at least 5 percent in 2015 and 2016. The Asian countries in this group are Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam; the others are Angola, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Peru. Bangladesh, the smallest of these countries, is also the poorest by a wide margin, with a GDP of 830 dollars per capita.
Malaysia is the richest country, with a GDP of 10,540 per capita. The second group comprises countries showing slightly slower growth rates but whose size and relative prosperity make them interesting for sellers, such as Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Thailand, Turkey and South Korea. Combined with the list of strong growth countries, this yields a Top 16 of emerging countries that ABN AMRO expects will be interesting to watch.
'Emerging countries are ranking higher and higher on the international list of the largest economies. Almost half these countries are among the world’s twenty largest economies. Thanks to strong growth rates, emerging markets now represent over 40 percent of the international GDP. However, these countries are severely hampered by obstacles that stand in the way of capital expenditure, investments and business dealings. For example, bureaucracy and corruption are particularly bad in the poorest countries in this Top 16,' warns Marijke Zewuster, Head of Emerging Markets at ABN AMRO.
'Economic growth in the BRIC countries has fallen short of expectations in recent years: particularly in Brazil and Russia, though China too is no longer recording growth rates upward of 10 percent. Nevertheless, this category of countries still represents a great deal of value. Their size and prosperity alone mean that they are still interesting markets: for investments or capex or as trade partners.'
Download the complete report below (in Dutch).