ABN AMRO’s FX & Precious Metals analyst Georgette Boele was been named the most accurate forecaster of the gold price during 2013 by Metal Bulletin Apex, which aggregates and analyses the accuracy of metals prices forecasts and research produced by banks and other industry participants.
Her year average gold price forecast of USD 1,500 was the most bearish in the market at the start of 2013 and it turned out to be significantly more accurate than any of her peers. After April’s sell-off in gold, she further downgraded her year end estimate to USD 1,200 with the actual gold price finishing the year at USD 1,205. She maintains a bearish view: her 2014 year end forecast is USD 1,000 (year average USD 1,100) and USD 800 (year average USD 900) for 2015.
Ms Boele was also the second most accurate forecaster of platinum last year, according to Metal Bulletin Apex, and ranked second place overall for the accuracy of her precious metals forecasts, including silver and palladium. She was previously rated the most accurate forecaster of the silver price in 2012.
ABN AMRO was additionally highlighted for the accuracy of its base metals forecasts. Sector analyst Casper Burgering was ranked most accurate forecaster of base metals prices in Q4 for the second quarter in a row, across his estimates on copper, aluminium, zinc, tin, nickel and lead.
Han de Jong, Head of Group Economics at ABN AMRO, said:
"Georgette has been a consistent and sometimes lone bearish voice on gold over recent years - in line with our view that global economic conditions are improving, uncertainty is easing and real interest rates are set to rise in the medium term. Her gold price forecasting has proved remarkably accurate, along with her analysis of price trends across the precious metals sector. We are pleased to see this accuracy complemented by an additional strong result for our base metals research."
Part of metals news and prices service Metal Bulletin (owned by Euromoney Institutional Investor plc), Metal Bulletin Apex combines research and analysis in metals prices to create the most accurate forecast available in the market. Apex contains leaderboards of analysts based upon the accuracy of their most recent price predictions for the metals traded on the London Metal Exchange.