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The Week Ahead - 7 - 11 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Focus in US-China talks shifts from tariffs to chokepoints
Chinese economy shows resilience after US-China truce, but supply side still stronger than demand side. China-US relations: Damage control in place, focus shifts from overall tariffs to chokepoints. Support is being delayed given resilience, but we still expect more to come to support demand.
Key views Global Monthly June/July 2025
Global growth expected to slow in the near term, as the US tariff shock drives an unwind of the frontloading of exports that occurred in Q1. While the tariff hit to growth remains significant, and the global economy (especially the US) will continue to be weighed by high policy uncertainty, downside risks have eased. Interest rate cuts and other forms of policy support are a cushioning factor in the eurozone and China, while in the eurozone specifically, defence spending, and in Germany new infrastructure spending will support growth in late 2025 and into 2026. Still, the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China face downside risks from weaker confidence, while in the US, demand will be hit by the tariff impact on real incomes. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. This is driving a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with Fed expected to stay on hold until 2026, and the ECB to cut rates somewhat further.
Japan - The Land of the Rising Yields
We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 9 - 13 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 2 - 6 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - Geneva truce softens export shock, but uncertainty remains
April data show impact of trade war escalation last month, before Geneva truce. (Temporary) reduction of tariffs softens key drag, although uncertainty remains high. We raise our annual growth forecasts for 2025/ 2026 to 4.7% (from 4.1%) and 4.2% (from 3.9%).
Global Monthly - Are we past the worst with tariffs?
The US-China trade truce shows that there are limits in how far the Trump administration is prepared go in implementing its radical trade agenda. We expect significant tariffs to remain in place, and this will weigh on growth in the near term. However, the trough in growth is likely to be shallower, and the downside risks significantly reduced. We lay out our forecast changes on the back of recent developments. Spotlight: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is highly regressive, puts upward pressure on bond yields, and risks amplifying economic downturns.