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Iran ceasefire - Is this a turning point?
- Natural resources
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A two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a welcome pause and the prospect of renewed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But much uncertainties remain, leaving risks of renewed disruption firmly on the horizon.
Global industry impacted by Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI comes down again in March on escalation of Iran conflict. Relatively strong readings for developed economies flattered by rising delivery times. These are indicative for a broad re-emergence of supply bottlenecks, and rising inflationary pressures.
Key views March 2026
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict is triggering a new global energy shock. It remains uncertain how long the disruptions to energy supplies will go on for, but our new base case assumes severe disruptions last until the end of May. The inflation shock will outweigh the growth shock, and this is leading to a hawkish pivot by central banks. The ECB is expected to hike rates while the Fed is expected to delay further rate cuts. Still, advanced economies are expected to stay resilient and to avoid recessions, and ultimately we expect central banks to lower rates again once the inflation shock has dissipated. Against this backdrop, US tariffs will remain a dampener on global trade, but the AI boom is continuing, German fiscal spending is driving a cyclical eurozone recovery, and China continues to take modest to lift demand while keeping its manufacturing growth model intact.
The Week Ahead: 16-20 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead: 9-13 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead: 2-6 March 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Top of Mind - Out with the old tariffs, in with the new
- Macro economy
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After a surprisingly long delay, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 last Friday that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs. Importantly, they referred the decision on whether paid tariffs, over $160 billion, have to be refunded back to lower courts. The Trump administration was quick to reimpose tariffs through other means. Still, overall tariff levels were somewhat reduced, with some countries benefiting substantially more than others.
Key Macro Events 23-27 February
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Key Macro Events 16 – 21 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
