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Global manufacturing: Still expanding during turbulent times

Macro economy

Global manufacturing PMI remained (just) in expansion territory at end-2025 – Following some US tariff related weakness in mid-2025, PMI manufacturing surveys indicate that global industry has remained in expansion mode in the second half of last year, though not at a spectacular pace. Since August 2025, the global manufacturing PMI has been back above the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction, with a peak of 50.9 in August and October. In December, this index dropped back slightly to a five-month low of 50.4 (November: 50.5). The picture was stable across the board, with the aggregate index for developed markets (DMs) staying at 50.5, and the aggregate index for emerging markets (EMs) slightly down to 50.4 (November: 50.5).

Chair Powell subpoena puts near-term rate cuts at risk

Macro economy

12 January 2026

Rogier Quaedvlieg

The Federal Reserve has received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department regarding Jerome Powell’s June congressional testimony about renovations at the Fed’s headquarters. Last year, it became apparent that the Trump administration viewed these renovations as a potential way to challenge Chair Powell. In a video statement last night, Powell emphasized that “the threat (…) is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” Meanwhile, Trump denied any knowledge of the investigation. A subpoena marks the beginning of an evidence-gathering process. This is an investigation, which may conclude without charges. If an indictment does occur, it will likely follow the precedent set by the Lisa Cook case, likely reaching the Supreme Court and taking considerable time.

The Week Ahead - 12 - 16 January 2026

Macro economy

09 January 2026

Bill DivineyAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van DijkhuizenRogier Quaedvlieg(+4)

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

The economic fall-out from Trump’s Greenland ambitions

Macro economy

09 January 2026

Nick KounisBill DivineyRogier Quaedvlieg(+2)

President Trump has strongly re-stated his view that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States. The White House has said it is exploring options to do so and that ‘utilising the US military is always an option’. This comes against the background of the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend. This was seen as a demonstration that the Trump administration is willing to use military power to achieve its objectives and that international law is not at the forefront of its considerations. Various other Latin American countries appear to be at risk of a similar fate, but there have also been renewed threats in the direction of Greenland. Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, which is a member of both the EU and Nato. In this note, we set out the current state of play, possible scenarios and the implications for the European economy in a Q&A format.

The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 December 2025

Macro economy

19 December 2025

Rogier QuaedvliegBill DivineyAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van Dijkhuizen(+4)

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

US - Labour market weakness to keep the Fed cutting

Macro economy

17 December 2025

Rogier Quaedvlieg

After a long drought of data, the labour market report hit hard. October payrolls fell by 105k, while November payrolls increased by 64k. Combined with a small rise in the participation rate, this led to the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, from a high 4.4% in September. Part of this might be due to misreporting from furloughed workers during the government shutdown, which would be temporary.