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The Week Ahead - 21 - 25 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Dovish ECB tone suggests more cuts to come
The ECB cut its key policy rates by 25bp as was widely expected.
ESG Economist - Direct Air versus Direct Ocean CO2 Capture
Recently we published an ESG economist about the carbon cycle. There are different places to store carbon such as in the lithosphere, which is the crust and uppermost solid mantle (including fossil fuel reserves), in the soil, in plants, in the ocean and in the atmosphere. But to limit climate change we would need to limit the carbon stored in the atmosphere. According to the Global Carbon Budget there are only 65 Gt, 160 Gt and 305 Gt of carbon left for the 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2.0°C pathways. This translates into a CO2 budget of 238 Gt CO2, 586 Gt CO2 and 1,117 Gt CO2 for the 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2.0°C pathways, respectively. As there is only limited availability especially for the 1.5°C scenario, there is a need for technologies that remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it. In recent years we have published several notes on Carbon Capture Storage Utilisation and carbon sequestration geoengineering. In this publication we focus on two technologies, namely, direct air capture and the relatively novel technology direct ocean capture. Direct air capture removes CO2 from the atmosphere and direct ocean capture removes CO2 from the ocean. In the next sections, we compare these technologies and look at their pros and cons. We end with a conclusion.
China enters trade war on solid first quarter
Real GDP growth in Q1 stronger than expected driven by ongoing policy support and trade frontloading. March macro data point to improving momentum just before tariff shock will hit. Growth forecasts under review; we will publish revised growth forecasts in our Global Monthly later this month.
Oil Market Monitor - Tariffs and OPEC+ shake up
Brent crude has reached lowest level in three years at $63 per barrel, affected by U.S. tariffs threats and OPEC+ revive production. New US tariffs and threats against oil from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have reshuffled supply chains and increased volatility.
US-China trade war: Twist and Shout
Late Friday evening, the US exempted popular electronics from reciprocal tariffs. The exemption provides particular relief to some of the magnificent seven, and others, who rely on Chinese manufacturing of electronics. Overall, roughly $390 billion of US imports were exempted, including about $100 billion from China.
ESG Economist - Carbon costs for ETS companies are set to rise
In 2024, Dutch companies that fell under the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) have emitted more CO2 than they did a year ago. According to the Dutch Emissions Authority (NEa), the increase was 2.3%, which amounts to approximately 1.4 million tonnes more CO2 emissions. In this short update on emissions among EU ETS companies, we not only look at emissions in the Netherlands, but also compare this with the trends in emissions in the other 26 EU member states. We also highlight the trend in carbon costs. Based on the expected CO2 price and the path of emissions towards 2030, we estimate the carbon costs in the period through to 2030.
ESG Economist – Is there a business case for sustainability?
Sustainability and climate change seem to have lost relevance in a world marked by tariffs, wars, and inflation. This note aims to establish a business case for sustainability, despite a loosening of regulatory standards and less participation of greens in the European Parliament.
The Week Ahead - 14 - 18 April 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
One week later - Reversal Day
Reciprocal tariff pause limits downside risks, but growth shock still significant