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Gas market monitor - Europe’s gas from boom to gloom
The end of the transit agreement through Ukraine in December 2024 resulted is substantially higher prices. The rally in prices was further fueled by increasing warries on the timely refill to meet regulated storage requirements (90% full by 1st of November). As a result of these factors, Europe was at the edge of a new gas crisis. But gas prices shifted course in mid-February. Several factors helped in cooling the market. The most important reasons are the ongoing peace talks to end the Ukrainian war, along with potential flexibility in of storage targets. In addition, approaching the end of the heating season with favorable weather conditions helped easing the market by mitigating the storage withdrawal rate. Accordingly, the month-ahead benchmark is back towards 40 €/MWh levels after hitting a two year high of 58.4 €/MWh in February. Since the start of March, TTF prices averaged 41.5 €/MWh for the benchmark month-ahead contract (34.4 €/MWh for the year-ahead contract. European industrial demand recovery starts to pick up but US tariffs could seriously dampen the outlook, while LNG markets remain tight and volatility is here to stay. European TTF month-ahead contract is trading around 41.5 €/MWh at the time of writing.
ESG Economist - Gas consumption structurally lower since energy crisis
Gas consumption in the Netherlands was on average 27% lower over the period 2022-2024 compared to the 2019-2021 period. Electrification on the basis of renewable energy sources is gaining in importance in the Netherlands, but gas-fired power generation will remain necessary for the time being. Despite the decline in gas usage and GHG emissions, lower gas prices in 2025 could lead to an increase in gas consumption and emissions, especially in industry and greenhouse horticulture.
Dutch economy in focus - Resilience of internal demand in the face of external uncertainty
The Dutch economy experienced a notable improvement of growth in 2024; government and household demand were the main drivers. Consumption increases despite household pessimism; higher purchasing power, rising house prices and the tight labour market contribute to consumption growth.
FOMC Preview - Hedging against Trump
We expect the Fed to stay on hold this Wednesday, and to push back against more aggressive easing priced by markets. Recent inflation data, upside inflation risks, and the risk of de-anchoring expectations limit the scope for easing. Holding rates steady now decreases the probability of having to raise rates in the near term, avoiding the ire of the Trump administration.
China - Good start to 2025, consumption support forthcoming
China Macro: Activity data for January/February surprise to the upside, although property sector data remain weak and the unemployment rate picks up. More consumption support is underway.
ESG Economist - German election result to slow down but not derail climate policy
The next German coalition government will likely include the CDU/CSU and the SPD, reviving the famous GroKo (Grand Coalition), and following on the heels of what was considered as one of the most “climate ambitious governments” in the world.
The Week Ahead - 17 - 21 March 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Carbon Market Strategist - Carbon prices cool following peace talks
EUA prices have averaged 73.3 €/tCO2 since February. The rally in EUA prices since the start of 2025 has reversed. The ease in carbon markets follow that in the European gas markets where peace talks to end the Ukrainian war, favorable weather conditions, and the possible flexibility to storage targets helped decreasing uncertainty and speculation in both markets. While the market is still dominated by bullish positions, the bearish sentiment is back as traders adjust their perceptions. The momentum in European industrial demand is ramping up but growth may slow down due to US tariffs. EUAs were trading at around 69 €/tCO2 at the time of writing.
US Watch – US inflation more than meets the eye, but tariffs less so
The US economy saw two significant developments today. The next step in Trump’s trade war came into force, with the US imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. Many of its major trading partners, including the EU, announced retaliation. This afternoon, we got a CPI inflation release that surprised to the downside, with 0.2% m/m gains of both headline and core inflation, while consensus expected 0.3% m/m. The tariffs are bad news, but perhaps not as bad as the headline suggest, while the inflation reading is good news, but perhaps not as good as the headline figure suggests.
Starting shots fired in US-EU trade war
The US decision to proceed with a planned 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminium triggered an immediate retaliation by the EU, targeted at politically sensitive US exports. Though the tariffs cover all US imports, this is the first that brings the EU directly into the fray. There are two key things to note about these tariffs.