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ESG Economist - Pressure on energy-intensive industry still high
This publication focuses on three factors that increase production costs: energy prices, environmental taxes on gas and electricity, and the CO2 levy. First, we examine the trend in margins for highly energy-intensive companies and industrial companies that are less energy-intensive. We also look at the impact of fossil energy consumption versus energy prices. Next, we examine environmental taxes – including in an international context – and the impact of the CO2 levy on Dutch industry. Finally, we look at deindustrialisation in the Netherlands and the extent to which this has already become a reality. We also investigate how the government's announced relief measures could affect the sustainability of the sector. We will end this note with a conclusion. (Photo by Mario Caruso on Unsplash)
ESG Economist - CBAM impacts and opportunities
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is integral to the EU Green Deal, designed to level the playing field for domestic and foreign producers while minimizing carbon leakage. The European Commission's Omnibus proposal offers simplifications to ease administrative burdens, ensuring most emissions remain covered.
Dutch Pension Fund Update - Pension Law Amendments Rejected, Curve Steepens
Today, the Dutch Parliament rejected the proposal to drastically amend the earlier adopted pension law. After the first vote, which took place per party, the votes were tied (75 against 75), a roll-call vote was held, which ultimately resulted in 72 votes in favour of the amendments and 73 against. In response to this vote, the EUR swap curve steepened which is in line with our view that the transition will result in a shift of hedges from the long end to shorter on the curve.
Trump’s big beautiful bill is primarily big
Moody’s downgraded US debt while Congress debates a bill that significantly worsens the debt outlook. The proposed bill plays tricks with temporary and permanent policy, setting bad precedent. With or without the bill, the US’ debt trajectory is unsustainable in the long run. If the Trump administration addresses the debt problem, it seems likely to follow Japan’s playbook of increasing domestic demand for debt. They have also been pushing the Fed to lower rates, which may result in inflating their way out of the real debt burden.
China - April data show hit from trade war pre-Geneva
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains.
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
FX Weekly - New USD/CNY forecasts
Tariff de-escalation supports US dollar versus FX majors. This comes at a time when the dollar was already recovering. The recovery could continue, but we expect the long-term downtrend in the dollar to remain in place. We downgrade USD/CNY from 7.80 to 7.30 for end-2025.
Macro Watch - Well, that de-escalated quickly
This morning, China and the US announced a significant de-escalation in the trade war, bringing the bilateral tariffs of 145% (on Chinese exports) and 125% (on US exports) down to 30% and 10% respectively.
ESG Economist - Increasing our security could come at an environmental cost
As geopolitical fears mount, EU countries are discussing options to ramp up defence spending. Currently, there are three options: finance it with debt, raise taxes and/or cut spending elsewhere, or use EU programmes.
The Week Ahead - 12 – 16 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.