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Transaction Trends - When temperatures spike, consumption seeks cooling
- Macro economy
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Extreme heat not only affects health and quality of life, but also leads to noticeable shifts in household spending behavior. The recent heatwave was accompanied by a temporary decline in Dutch household consumption. Online spending and cash withdrawals declined during the heatwave, while card spending initially increased and only fell during the most extreme heat conditions. Card spending held up relatively better in highly urbanised areas than in less urbanised regions. In particular, spending at restaurants and cafés increased in these areas, while fuel expenditures declined sharply elsewhere.
The Netherlands - The Harry Styles effect
- Macro economy
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Q1 GDP upwardly revised to 0.2% q/q. We expect growth to average 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. CPI inflation rose sharply to 3.5% y/y in May, largely driven by airfares and accommodation. With Prinsjesdag (Budget Day) approaching, attention is turning to purchasing power support.
Global Monthly - Teflon economy shaking off another shock
- Macro economy
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The global economy remains resilient in the face of persistent shocks. The AI boom, defence spending and the energy transition ‘capex troika’ are likely to continue supporting growth going forward. Still, AI bubble risk, and sovereign debt dynamics remain a worry.
Services drives May eurozone inflation rise
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation picked up in line with expectations to 3.2% in May, from 3% in April, while core inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 2.5% (ABN/consensus: 2.4%) from 2.2%. Energy continues to be the biggest driver of inflation, but held steady in May at 10.9% y/y, as a rise in petrol prices was probably offset to a greater extent than expected by falling diesel prices. Indeed, as we pointed out in our latest Global Monthly, the gap between diesel and petrol – which widened as refineries struggled to replace lost Middle Eastern diesel supply – has now largely normalised as European refineries filled the gap. Food inflation also unexpectedly fell back, to 2% from 2.4% in April, though there was considerable variation across countries this month (for instance, France saw a big rise in food inflation).
The Netherlands - Momentum eases after strong run
- Macro economy
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Growth slowed to 0.1% q/q at the start of the year, with increased uncertainty dampening growth. We have downwardly revised our growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2027. HICP inflation forecasts are upgraded to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz clock is ticking
- Macro economy
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The US and Iran seem close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But even with a full reopening, energy prices are likely to stay well above pre-war levels over the coming quarters. In the absence of a deal, the continued rundown of oil inventories poses the risk of nonlinear price spikes. Still, we expect the growth impact to stay contained thanks to the underlying resilience and flexibility of the global economy.
The Netherlands - A tailored support package
- Macro economy
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While downside risks have clearly increased, we expect Q1 GDP to come in at 0.4% q/q. The Dutch cabinet has proposed various measures to support households and companies. The risk of second round effects on wages and inflation is bigger for the Netherlands. Rather than rising, the new bout of inflation will mean purchasing power stagnates in 2026.
Global Monthly - The Hormuz stand-off
- Macro economy
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The Iran conflict has morphed from a hot war to an economic one, with both sides using the Hormuz chokepoint as negotiation leverage. Energy supply disruptions are bigger than ever, but market worries have subsided, with peace efforts given the benefit of the doubt. We make only incremental forecast adjustments this month, keeping our core view that severe energy disruptions persist to end-May. We also update our more positive and negative scenarios for the conflict.
Key Macro Events 9 – 13 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The Week Ahead - 31 January - 6 February 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
