House prices set to rise by 3 percent in 2026

Dutch housing market showed surprisingly strong growth in 2025

Dutch house prices are expected to rise by 8.6 percent in 2025. This means prices are at approximately the same level as in 2024, when the annual increase was 8.7 percent. ABN AMRO expects this growth to continue in both 2026 (+3 percent) and 2027 (+4 percent), although at a much slower pace than last year. This moderate price growth is driven by modest economic growth in the Netherlands, combined with slightly falling inflation, while household incomes continue to rise. As a result, demand for homes will remain strong in 2026 and 2027, keeping upward pressure on prices, though less pronounced than in 2025. These are the conclusions ABN AMRO draws in the latest edition of its Housing Market Monitor, published today.

Number of transactions to decline over the next two years

The number of transactions reached a record high in 2025 mainly due to the sale of investment properties. ABN AMRO expects 239,000 transactions for the year – 16 percent higher than in the same period in 2024. This is likely the highest number of transactions in the past decade; the previous record of 235,511 dates back to 2020. However, ABN AMRO expects the wave of investor sales to have largely stabilised. The sale of rental properties by investors will continue in the first half of this year, but their impact will likely disappear in 2027. The shortage of new-build homes is also having a downward effect on the number of transactions. Consequently, the bank forecasts a decline in housing transactions in both 2026 (-1 percent) and 2027 (-4 percent).

Government plans to boost housing market are complex and take time

The housing market is one of the main topics in coalition talks. According to ABN AMRO, the focus appears to be on increasing housing supply, but beyond the ambition to invest more, no concrete strategy has emerged. The coalition talks include discussions on a possible reduction of mortgage interest tax relief. Parties in favour of this aim for a slow reduction to mitigate the impact on homeowners’ income. The aim is to ensure homeowners are not disadvantaged, and discussions include a scheme to reduce income tax. However, the details are complex and will take time to finalise. Given these considerations, ABN AMRO expects that a reduction in mortgage interest tax relief will not immediately lower house prices in the coming years, partly because higher wages and inflation continue to drive prices up. The bank also highlights the Affordable Housing Plan presented by the European Commission in December 2025. This includes proposals to increase housing supply in Europe by reducing restrictions, harmonising rules between member states and offering more financing options. It also gives EU member states more flexibility to fund affordable housing by lifting support limits. For the Netherlands, this could mean that the mid-range rental segment may eventually be supported with subsidies, for example by expanding housing association activities into this segment.