Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.

Domestic weakness broadened over the summer, with investment growth cooling sharply. We expect Beijing to add targeted stimulus to safeguard growth, but a ‘bazooka’ is still unlikely. Meanwhile, China’s stock markets do not seem to care about weaker macro data.

The Fed did a ‘risk management cut’ of 25 bps as inflation and employment risks approach balance. Tariffs and the immigration crackdown led to an immediate stagflationary impulse, but the overall picture is nothing like the 1970s yet. Early Q3 data is actually showing some signs of a modest recovery in consumption and investment.