Global manufacturing PMI at four-year high in April, driven by ‘stockpiling’. Delivery times are lenghtening, particularly for developed economies. Our global supply bottlenecks index stays in ‘excess demand territory’. Inflationary pressures from global industry pick up further.

Housing affordability is a central theme in the public debate. It is often assessed based on aggregate indicators such as home prices and average incomes. In recent years these indicators have painted a seemingly reassuring picture, despite a doubling of home prices. Income growth outpaced rising housing costs, causing average housing cost ratios to decline. However, this picture masks the significant differences between households. The Dutch housing market is characterized by clear dividing lines. Homeowners accumulate an advantage over time because their incomes rise while their mortgage payments remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, renters and first-time homebuyers are confronted with rent increases and rising house prices. Furthermore, there are significant differences between the major cities and the rest of the Netherlands. It is therefore necessary to look beyond averages and break down housing costs by rental versus ownership, young versus old, and by region. This analysis shows that the perceived improvement in housing costs is unevenly distributed. Existing homeowners benefit the most, while first-time homebuyers and young renters—particularly in the four major cities—saw their housing cost ratios rise or barely decline. At the same time, it appears that younger buyers and renters are achieving their seemingly stable or declining housing costs in part by downsizing. When living space is considered, they are paying more per square meter. The general, aggregated picture of declining housing costs thus masks a growing gap in affordability and housing quality between groups of households. Average trends therefore provide insufficient insight into who is actually better off.

The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI has risen sharply, from 52.0 to 54.4 in April, the highest reading since the summer of 2022. Because of the war in the Middle East, which has caused the biggest disruption to supply chains in almost four years, companies have started stockpiling.