Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.

Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten beyond next week’s expected rate hike.

In the first half of this year, the Dutch economy grew stronger than previously expected; growth will slow in the second half. We expect growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. The minority government has reached an agreement, and will introduce purchasing power support. Given its minority status, the budget will likely still be amended.

Economic output is rising, but no decisive breakthrough is in sight. Still, we are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2026. The inflation rate is likely to hover just below 3.0% over the coming months.

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech increased the perceived odds of a September hike. The broader FOMC still seems divided. The speed of progress on the disinflation process is key. The labour market muddles along, with weak hiring and employment caught by dwindling supply.

Supply-demand imbalances worsen amidst weak growth momentum. Beijing still seems to be taking a cautious approach towards fresh stimulus. US-China tensions resurface in run-up to Trump-Xi summit; tougher EU stance on China.

Data centers are an indispensable pillar of the digital economy, but their rapid growth also raises questions. And this growth continues, including in the EU. This analysis shows which European countries are best positioned to attract new data centers. To that end, we examine both current and future data center capacity. We address the challenges, both in terms of power grids and investments and costs. This analysis shows how the AI boom, high costs, fragmented EU regulations, and increasingly scarce space are making the choice of location for data centers increasingly complex. We provide insight into the factors that determine data center developers’ site selection, and which EU member states are relatively well-positioned based on these criteria.

The summer of 2026 has so far been exceptionally warm and dry, with wildfires spreading across large parts of Europe. Recent indicators of land temperatures, drought conditions and wildfire activity are significantly exceeding longer-term trends. Moreover, economic losses associated with heatwaves, droughts and wildfires have risen steadily over time. In this note, we estimate the economic losses incurred across Europe during the summer of 2026, and we also consider what these developments may imply for the Netherlands. Finally, we examine the implications of these extreme weather events for energy markets.

Demand for clean technologies (also known as ‘clean tech’) from the European Union (EU) is set to rise sharply in the coming years. This is due to not only the EU’s ambition to meet its climate targets, but also to its drive to achieve greater energy security. It is highly likely that the acceleration in demand for clean tech will lead to a further increase in trade flows in clean technologies between the EU and its current trading partners. This analysis focuses on trade flows in clean technologies between the EU and countries outside the EU. We do not only highlight the balance of imports and exports of clean technologies in the EU-27 in relation to countries outside the EU-27, but also show which countries are the EU-27’s most important trading partners. The analysis also examines the impact of recent geopolitical conflicts on trade flows: that impact the region’s energy security. Finally, we assess the feasibility of the EU’s clean tech targets for clean technologies for 2030.

The Iran conflict is having a major impact on commodity markets. With the outbreak of the war and Iran’s attacks on neighbouring countries’ oil and gas facilities, prices for energy commodities have soared. Such a sharp price reaction in other commodity markets (particularly metals) was initially absent, as the impact of the Middle East conflict on many non-fossil commodities did not immediately lead to widespread panic. It is now almost four weeks on, and many non-fossil commodities are beginning to show their true colours. In this analysis, we take a closer look at the trend in the transition metals index and which specific transition metals have been most affected since the start of the war. We also present the price index for defence metals and how this differs from the trend in the price of transition metals. With this analysis, we provide insight into the various price trends and indicate how this may impact the business sector.

Expanding renewable energy sources, alongside investments in grids, storage, and supply chains, creates a sustainable and affordable energy system while reducing import dependency. Despite progress, projections show a significant gap between the current trajectory and the 2030 targets, prolonging reliance on imported fossil fuels and increasing geopolitical risks. Reducing energy intensity and improving efficiency decouples economic growth from energy consumption, strengthening competitiveness and lowering exposure to volatile energy markets. The expansion of electrification, based on the expansion of renewable energy, is crucial to safeguarding the EU’s energy security. Energy efficiency, innovation and the reuse of raw materials make countries less dependent on volatile energy markets and imports. Expanding storage capacity, refining facilities, and grid infrastructure ensures stability during energy crises and supports the transition to renewables. Integration of cross-border energy systems, aligned policies, and collaborative strategies strengthen resilience and reduce dependencies on external suppliers.

Due to the war in Iran, oil and gas prices have risen significantly since the start of this month, resulting in falling equity prices and rising bond yields across the globe. The way in which both, ECB expectations and the bond market respond to an oil and gas price shock varies depending on the situation (see for example chart below). In this note, we aim to disentangle how different oil and gas shocks impact ECB expectations and Bund yields, based on available academic research. This helps market participants to understand what to expect from Bund curves in the short- and long-term following an oil or gas shock.

Are Dutch households already feeling the impact of higher energy prices? In this publication, we use anonymised and aggregated transaction data from more than a million households to track how higher energy prices are affecting household finances. Interestingly, despite five months of elevated energy market prices, the median household energy payment has barely increased. This is because many existing contracts are still in effect and new electricity tariffs are not significantly higher. Although higher oil prices are quickly passed on at the pump, the increase in household fuel spending has so far remained limited as motorists adjust their behaviour.

Extreme heat not only affects health and quality of life, but also leads to noticeable shifts in household spending behavior. The recent heatwave was accompanied by a temporary decline in Dutch household consumption. Online spending and cash withdrawals declined during the heatwave, while card spending initially increased and only fell during the most extreme heat conditions. Card spending held up relatively better in highly urbanised areas than in less urbanised regions. In particular, spending at restaurants and cafés increased in these areas, while fuel expenditures declined sharply elsewhere.

This year, approximately 1.5 million Dutch retirees are noticing the effects of the pension transition in their wallets. Based on anonymized transaction data, we analyze the spending impulse resulting from the “conversion bonus” (invaarbonus), the additional pension indexation due to the transition to the new pension system. Retirees spend on average only 22% of an extra euro of pension income. This percentage declines at higher ages. Retirees with lower incomes or limited financial buffers tend to spend a larger share of the additional income. Despite the relatively small percentage effects, the size of the conversion bonus, combined with a large number of elderly people, still provides a modest boost to the Dutch economy.

How is the war in Iran impacting Dutch households? In this publication, we analyse how quickly higher energy prices impact household finances, using anonymised transaction data from more than 1 million households. Higher gas prices feed through with a delay, meaning the average household energy bill payment has not yet increased. With regards to fuel spending, we see that rising oil prices filter through much quicker; this effect is already visible in March. We expect energy payments to continue increasing in the coming months, as was also the case in 2022. At that time, it took around a quarter for energy bill payments to increase noticeably. We will therefore monitor household energy payments closely in the coming months, particularly for households that are vulnerable to higher energy costs.

Due to the war in Iran, fuel prices have shot up, while gasoline prices in Belgium are up to 55 cents per liter lower. As a result, about 15% of gasoline consumption in the border region has shifted to Belgium, a change largely caused by a relatively small share of households. This effect is consistent for households living up to 30 kilometers from the border, meaning that not only gas stations near the border but also those further away may experience revenue losses. Nevertheless, the overall nationwide loss of excise tax revenue for the government remains limited.

Analysis of 320,000 households shows a decline in the housing expense ratio for the average household in recent years. The housing expenses ratio is the percentage of income spent on housing costs. Homeowners typically have a lower housing expenses ratio; private‑sector and social‑sector renters are at comparable levels. Younger buyers and private‑sector renters have similar incomes and housing costs. The housing expenses ratio for younger buyers has risen due to mortgage interest deductions and limited buying opportunities for lower incomes. Housing allowance is essential for many recipients, preventing households from having to spend more than half their income on housing costs.

Aggie van Huisseling is a senior economist Netherlands at Group Economics of ABN AMRO

Arjen van Dijkhuizen is Senior Economist Emerging Markets at Group Economics of ABN AMRO Bank.

Finn Blokker is a data scientist within the Transaction Data Research team at ABN AMRO Group Economics.

Marta Teixeira is analyst Climate Economics at Group Economics of ABN AMRO Bank

Casper Burgering is Senior Economist Energy (renewables) & Critical Materials at Group Economics of ABN AMRO.

Larissa Fritz is a Senior Fixed Income Strategist, with focus on Rates at the Group Economics of ABN AMRO Bank.