The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 December 2025

United States – Next week we're getting the first estimate of Q3 GDP growth. We expect resilience, with annualized growth of 3.2%, and consumption growth of 2.7%, and another relatively strong component in non-residential investment. Of course this is old economic data. For Q4 we expect more of a slowdown with investment holding up, but consumption growth slowing down significantly, partly on the back of the government shutdown, but also a more fundamental slowdown. At the end of the year, we get FOMC meeting minutes which will give a little bit more information on the differing views in the FOMC. We think there's still a majority who supports further easing, but with increasing resistance. Data since the FOMC meeting, to the extent that it is reliable, continues to support our base case of 75bps of cuts next year. China – We expect the 1-year loan prime rate to be kept unchanged at 3.00% on Monday (in line with consensus), given recent inaction of the PBoC. Going forward, we expect piecemeal monetary easing in the form of RRR cuts and mini policy rate cuts to resume in Q1-2026, reflecting the weak state of domestic demand.