Group Economics: “Slowly getting back up”
- Economy
Despite coronavirus restrictions easing up in May, the economy is only slowly getting back up, an analysis of ABN AMRO transaction data by ABN AMRO Group Economics shows.
In June, expenses were far below (ten per cent lower) the level they were during that same month in 2019. This applies especially to the cultural and travel sectors, which were still restricted. Sectors that opened up early June lagged behind as well, with far less beingspent on clothing, shoes, wellness and in the hospitality sector.
You can find the analysis by ABN AMRO Group Economics on Insights: (Dutch only). Only retail did well, with revenues in May up 8.2 per cent from the year before. Data from ABN AMRO shows that mostly supermarkets and specialty stores posted an increase in revenue, both online and offline. This trend continued in June.
A long road to recovery
While both consumer and producer confidence seem to be increasing, the road to old levels is long, says Nora Neuteboom, senior economist at Group Economics. “Economic activity isquickly rebounding, but it still restricted by coronavirus-related measures, wariness among consumers and entrepreneurs and the decrease in demand for products and services from abroad.”
ABN AMRO economists expect a resurge in the third quarter, but growth will be slower from the fourth quarter on.Nora: “Higher unemployment rates, bankruptcies and disruptions of the supply chains will slow down growth.”
All in all, the economy will shrink by 5.7 per cent in 2020 and is expected to stage a minor recovery of 2.7 per cent in 2021. The economy is not expected to return to its old, pre-crisislevel until 2022.