Housing market stronger in 2026; sharper slowdown expected in 2027

• House prices forecast to rise by 3.8 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027

• Housing transactions expected to decline in both 2026 (-0.5 percent) and 2027 (-5.5 percent)

• Significant regional differences persist, with Amsterdam leading the cooling trend

Higher mortgage rates to put a firmer brake on the housing market in 2027

The Dutch housing market is performing better than expected this year, but ABN AMRO expects a noticeably sharper slowdown in 2027. The stronger-than-expected performance has prompted the bank to revise its 2026 house price forecast upwards, from 3 percent to 3.8 percent. With the trend set to reverse in 2027, however, the bank has lowered its forecast from 4 percent to 2.5 percent. ABN AMRO has also revised its outlook for housing transactions. The expected decline in 2026 has been scaled back from 3 percent to 0.5 percent, while transaction volumes are now forecast to fall by 5.5 percent in 2027, compared with the previous forecast of 4 percent. The main driver of the slowdown is that mortgage rates are likely to remain higher for longer than previously anticipated. Even so, ABN AMRO does not currently expect house prices to fall. These are the conclusions of the latest edition of the Woningmarktmonitor (Housing Market Monitor), published today.

Regions outside the Randstad are catching up

Behind the national averages lie significant regional differences. While price growth in urban areas is losing momentum, rural regions are recording strong increases. The provinces of Groningen, Drenthe and Gelderland are seeing the strongest price growth and lifting the national average. In contrast, house price growth in the Randstad is slowing, with Amsterdam leading the slowdown. In the second quarter, house prices in the Dutch capital were just 0.8 percent higher than a year earlier. This is much lower than the national average increase of 4.2 percent and the rise of 7.9 percent in Groningen. ABN AMRO regards Amsterdam as a barometer for the wider Dutch housing market. The cooling now visible in the capital could therefore be an early indication of how the slowdown may develop in other regions over time.

Strong fundamentals continue to underpin the housing market

According to ABN AMRO, the measures presented by the Dutch government on Budget Day will have only a limited impact on the housing market in the short term. Most of the proposed policies focus on investors and the rental sector, while measures affecting homebuyers are likely to have both positive and negative effects. For example, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) expects purchasing power to decline, particularly among higher-income households. At the same time, the maximum rate at which mortgage interest can be deducted from taxable income will increase. It was also announced earlier that the transfer tax exemption for first-time buyers will be expanded in 2027, with the eligibility threshold rising from € 555,000 to € 615,000. In addition, the National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) limit is expected to increase. “First-time buyers stand to benefit most from these measures, as transaction costs will fall and more homes will qualify for the exemption,” says Mike Langen, Senior Housing Market Economist at ABN AMRO. “That does not change the fact that affordability remains under pressure. Mortgage rates are likely to stay higher for longer, income growth is slowing and the housing shortage remains substantial. Together, these factors will take some of the heat out of the market, but we do not currently anticipate a fall in house prices. Overall, the Dutch housing market remains robust.”