Macro Vision - Investments in the elevator
- Economy
The recovery of the world economy has recently been weakened somewhat by bad weather, a stock correction in the US and the bumpy transition to a new growth model in China. We expect the global economy to accelerate as these factors fade away.
Positive factors
Companies in the prosperous economies seem ready for expansion. Both in the US and Europe, the solvency of companies has improved considerably and the value of net assets is above the historical average. Profits have risen sharply in the US and Japan. Earnings development in the eurozone has lagged behind, but is showing a turnaround and is likely to improve further in the coming quarters. The risks of an escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis and a budget stalemate in the US have decreased, making the outlook less uncertain. Given this combination of positive factors, companies are likely to invest more and hire more staff. The emerging markets will benefit from a substantial export to the prosperous countries. After a while this also leads to higher investments there. In addition, investments in infrastructure are being stepped up in a number of countries - in particular China.
Emerging Markets Vision - Careful forward
Economic activity in the emerging markets slowed slightly in the first quarter, but there are signs of stabilization. This is due to the anti-cyclical policies in many countries and the expectation that the global economy will pick up. The phasing out of monetary stimulation by the Fed has been amply processed and the market is confident that the Chinese government will support the economy to avoid a major slowdown. However, there are still dark clouds. For example, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has worsened and the prospects for both countries are deteriorating