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Special Global Outlook 2026 - We need to talk about Exorbitant Privilege
- Macro economy
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Exorbitant Privilege: The erosion of US institutions has surprised in its speed and scope. What are the risks in 2026, and can Europe step up to fill some of the void?
Global Outlook 2026 - The shifting world order
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. The trade war weapon du jour has shifted from tariffs to chokepoints, creating new challenges for governments and manufacturers. Fiscal troubles in France and the UK are likely to remain a worry. Global growth has been remarkably resilient given the headwinds. We expect that resilience to continue in 2026, albeit with considerable risks.
Transaction Trends -Cost of living pressures for Dutch households
- Macro economy
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Analysis of 340,000 Dutch households provides insight into the development of the cost of living for the first time. We examine the extent to which a household's net income is consumed by fixed expenses, making basic expenditures and coping with setbacks difficult.
Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
- Macro economy
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Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
Special - We need to talk about China…
- Macro economy
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(I) Reliance on China might be the least-worst of all options by Sandra Phlippen. (II) China’s growth impact on Europe – Supply hits even more than demand by Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Global Outlook 2025 - The year of the tariff
- Macro economy
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The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit, leading to a sharp slowdown later in the year. Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below the 2% target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%. This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.
Climate change and the Dutch housing market - Insights and policy guidance
- Macro economy
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Economists of ING, Rabobank and ABN AMRO investigated how climate change affects the housing market through three channels of impact: physical climate risks, climate adaptation, and climate mitigation. The aim is to provide insights and recommendations that help the transition to a CO2-neutral and climate-resilient (owner-occupied) housing stock. The study is based on a comprehensive literature review.
Stacking climate risks and financial resilience in the housing market
- Macro economy
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Climate change creates greater risks that are more frequent and cause more damage to Dutch homes. This study addresses the question of which districts can be deemed ‘climate-vulnerable districts’, i.e. those in which the risks of climate change, but also the costs of energy efficiency measures, may be too much for homeowners or properties to bear.
Global Outlook 2024 - Back to not so normal
- Macro economy
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Advanced economies were resilient last year in the face of the steepest rate rises in decades. While we expect growth to be sluggish for much of 2024, we do not expect a major downturn. Inflation is expected to continue falling, enabling central banks to start the long process of bringing rates back down to normal. We expect the Fed and ECB to cut by 125bp in the second half of 2024. Falling rates should help drive a recovery later in 2024, with momentum picking up in 2025. But risks loom: From a possible Trump 2.0, to a potential EU-China trade spat, and more broadly, the tail-risk of a more disorderly decoupling between the west and China. Whether these risks crystalise or not, the response of central banks will – as always – be crucial in shaping the longer-term impact on the economy. Against this backdrop, climate policy is being increasingly challenged by a political shift to the right.
SustainaWeekly - Positive tipping points could supercharge rise of renewables
- Sustainability
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In this edition of the SustainaWeekly, we first discuss how developments in transition technologies are non-linear. Based on a new report, we discuss the existence of tipping points, the point at which new solutions cross a threshold of affordability, attractiveness or accessibility leading to mass adoption. What is more, a tipping point for one solution can have cascading effects on other solutions by bringing their tipping points closer as well. This may explain the structural underestimation in the rise of renewables. We dig in to one example of these cascading effects. We then go on to review the new EU Green Bond Standard, where a final text was recently agreed. We assess the main features of the regulation and the implications for green bond markets. Finally, we assess the push by some EU countries to exempt cars with internal combustion engines fuelled by synthetic fuels from the 2035 new sale ban. We zoom into the pros and cons of synthetic fuels.
