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Transaction Trends -Cost of living pressures for Dutch households
- Macro economy
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Analysis of 340,000 Dutch households provides insight into the development of the cost of living for the first time. We examine the extent to which a household's net income is consumed by fixed expenses, making basic expenditures and coping with setbacks difficult.
Climate change and the Dutch housing market - Insights and policy guidance
- Macro economy
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Economists of ING, Rabobank and ABN AMRO investigated how climate change affects the housing market through three channels of impact: physical climate risks, climate adaptation, and climate mitigation. The aim is to provide insights and recommendations that help the transition to a CO2-neutral and climate-resilient (owner-occupied) housing stock. The study is based on a comprehensive literature review.
Stacking climate risks and financial resilience in the housing market
- Macro economy
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Climate change creates greater risks that are more frequent and cause more damage to Dutch homes. This study addresses the question of which districts can be deemed ‘climate-vulnerable districts’, i.e. those in which the risks of climate change, but also the costs of energy efficiency measures, may be too much for homeowners or properties to bear.
Sustainaweekly - Will labour shortages hamper the transition?
- Sustainability
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In this edition of the SustainaWeekly, we start off by assessing whether labour shortages in the Netherlands can hamper the government’s ambitious plans to reduce emissions by 60% by 2030. Unfortunately, our analysis suggests that this is a very real risk. While the labour market is very tight across the board (about 20% of vacancies are currently unfilled), this is even more true for climate professions. Between the end of 2021 and March 2022, the percentage of unfilled vacancies rose from 24% to 36%. We go on to look at why renewable energy equities have escaped the downward pull of higher interest rates, in contrast to other growth stocks. Finally, we present a review of ESG bond issuance in Q1, when we saw a break in the upward march of the market.
Global Monthly - Will labour shortages prove inflationary?
- Macro economy
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Labour markets have tightened across the board, but with large differences in how much. We take a deep dive into supply and demand-side developments, and find that the US is experiencing particularly extreme labour market tightness, with the UK and the Netherlands close behind. For the eurozone in aggregate, labour market tightness is much less of a concern, keeping the prospects for a surge in wage growth low. However, the aggregate masks big country divergences.
Increase in income deprivation among employees during pandemic in the Netherlands
- Macro economy
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The number of employees experiencing an income decline of at least 10% increased by 2.3 percentage points in the year since the pandemic started (i.e. March 2020 - February 2021 compared to the previous year). In absolute numbers, this amounts to 190,000 employees. The average setback was 40% of net income, or 870 Euros per month. This can be read in a report by Group Economics of ABN AMRO, based on anonymized bank account data from customers.
Global Monthly – Are labour shortages for real?
- Macro economy
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The global economy continues to rebound rapidly following the easing of lockdown measures.This month, we upgrade both our eurozone and US GDP growth forecasts for 2021.One possible spanner in the works for the recovery is a potential looming labour shortage.We find that despite signs of a shortage, aggregate labour demand is still well below pre-pandemic levels, and this will likely be met with ample supply once government support measures are eased.Regional updates: in the eurozone, economies are bouncing back after an early easing of lockdowns, and in the Netherlands, improving confidence points to a sharp rebound in consumption.In the US, goods consumption is easing, but this should be offset by the services recovery.Cost pressures continue to rise in China, prompting a policy response from Beijing.
#Stembuzz – The Dutch election results and its climate implications
- Macro economy
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Based on the 17 March 2021 Dutch election results, a coalition of parties with a CO2 equivalent emission reduction target varying between 49% and 60% (vs 1990) in 2030 is underway (assuming that the VVD follows the climate agreement promises). Final policy will likely to be a reduction target close to 55%. A new package of economic measures is required to reach this target. We discuss the taxes, investments, subsidies and other regulations needed to achieve a 55% reduction of emissions in The Netherlands, according to a recent report from the working group under Laura van Geest,. Ambitious climate policy can be associated with two types of inequality: income inequality within a generation and inequality between current and future generations. Parties with ambitious climate goals also pursue policies that result in lower inequality. This is achieved partly with compensation via income policy and partly through financing by government debt (passing part of the bill on to future generations).
Dutch economy in focus: Recovery will take place in the second half of 2021
- Macro economy
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So far, the Dutch economy is weathering the storm relatively well. Compared to neighbouring countries, the GDP contraction of 2020 has been limited to 3.8% and, thanks to generous support, unemployment and bankruptcies have remained surprisingly low. But we are not there yet. The Dutch vaccination programme will only allow for a serious easing of restrictions from June onwards, so the economy will suffer a further blow in the first half of 2021. As soon as the economy reopens, fiscal support will also be phased out gradually. The economy will need time to adjust and in the meantime more companies will go bankrupt and workers will lose their jobs. At the same time, consumers will start to spend their involuntary savings, which have been build-up during the lockdown periods.. This will boost growth rates, although not as much as some may hope. We expect the economy to return to pre-corona GDP levels at the end of 2021. After that, catch-up growth will be meagre and growth will soon return to pre-corona levels. Taken together, we expect the output gap to remain negative throughout the forecasting horizon.
Global Monthly – End of pandemic in sight, but testing times ahead
- Macro economy
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Our new global baseline scenario sees a slow population-wide roll-out of an effective vaccine underpinning a gradual global economic recovery. Starting in summer 2021, this roll-out will last into Q2 2022.In this scenario all mobility restrictions are lifted from Q2 2022.
