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Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
- Macro economy
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Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
Special - We need to talk about China…
- Macro economy
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(I) Reliance on China might be the least-worst of all options by Sandra Phlippen. (II) China’s growth impact on Europe – Supply hits even more than demand by Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Global Outlook 2025 - The year of the tariff
- Macro economy
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The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit, leading to a sharp slowdown later in the year. Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below the 2% target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%. This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.
Climate change and the Dutch housing market - Insights and policy guidance
- Macro economy
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Economists of ING, Rabobank and ABN AMRO investigated how climate change affects the housing market through three channels of impact: physical climate risks, climate adaptation, and climate mitigation. The aim is to provide insights and recommendations that help the transition to a CO2-neutral and climate-resilient (owner-occupied) housing stock. The study is based on a comprehensive literature review.
Stacking climate risks and financial resilience in the housing market
- Macro economy
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Climate change creates greater risks that are more frequent and cause more damage to Dutch homes. This study addresses the question of which districts can be deemed ‘climate-vulnerable districts’, i.e. those in which the risks of climate change, but also the costs of energy efficiency measures, may be too much for homeowners or properties to bear.
Global Outlook 2024 - Back to not so normal
- Macro economy
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Advanced economies were resilient last year in the face of the steepest rate rises in decades. While we expect growth to be sluggish for much of 2024, we do not expect a major downturn. Inflation is expected to continue falling, enabling central banks to start the long process of bringing rates back down to normal. We expect the Fed and ECB to cut by 125bp in the second half of 2024. Falling rates should help drive a recovery later in 2024, with momentum picking up in 2025. But risks loom: From a possible Trump 2.0, to a potential EU-China trade spat, and more broadly, the tail-risk of a more disorderly decoupling between the west and China. Whether these risks crystalise or not, the response of central banks will – as always – be crucial in shaping the longer-term impact on the economy. Against this backdrop, climate policy is being increasingly challenged by a political shift to the right.
SustainaWeekly - Positive tipping points could supercharge rise of renewables
- Sustainability
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In this edition of the SustainaWeekly, we first discuss how developments in transition technologies are non-linear. Based on a new report, we discuss the existence of tipping points, the point at which new solutions cross a threshold of affordability, attractiveness or accessibility leading to mass adoption. What is more, a tipping point for one solution can have cascading effects on other solutions by bringing their tipping points closer as well. This may explain the structural underestimation in the rise of renewables. We dig in to one example of these cascading effects. We then go on to review the new EU Green Bond Standard, where a final text was recently agreed. We assess the main features of the regulation and the implications for green bond markets. Finally, we assess the push by some EU countries to exempt cars with internal combustion engines fuelled by synthetic fuels from the 2035 new sale ban. We zoom into the pros and cons of synthetic fuels.
Global Monthly -Will tight labour markets make inflation sticky?
- Macro economy
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In this monthly, we challenge our view that peak policy rate is in sight and pivots are on the cards later this year. Labour market developments present the most proximate risk to our monetary policy view. We assess the likelihood of wage-price spirals emerging from current tight labour markets and wage developments.
Key views on Global Monthly February 2023
- Macro economy
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The easing energy crisis in Europe is leading to more shallow expected recessions in the eurozone and UK, while the US is also entering a moderate downturn. In the near term, consumption will continue to be weighed by falling real incomes, and the impact of monetary tightening – with housing markets clearly correcting on the back of the surge in mortgage rates. China’s exit from Zero Covid is offsetting the slowdown in the advanced economies to some extent, but may also slow the global disinflation process. While inflation has begun to trend lower, upside risks to the medium term inflation outlook mean the Fed, ECB and BoE are likely to continue raising rates at coming meetings, with risks to our policy rate views more and more tilted to the upside.
SustainaWeekly - Does knowledge of foundation problems impact house prices?
- Sustainability
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In this edition of the SustainaWeekly, we first present a study the extent to which reported foundation damage is factored into the sale price of homes in the Netherlands. Climate change can increase the risk of foundation problems and is a key physical risk for housing markets. We go on to take a closer look at carbon offset markets and recent reports suggesting that carbon reduction in the underlying projects is being overstated. Furthermore we look into the consequences of the government scaling down the net-metering scheme, which has provided such a boost to small-scale solar energy generation.
