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Trump’s Greenland tariffs: Impact and possible EU response
- Macro economy
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President Trump announced new tariffs on European countries in response to their Greenland military exercise. There is substantial uncertainty around implementation of US tariffs, both practically and legally. The EU is preparing its response, and escalation risk is rising, but use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument is unlikely in the very near-term. A ‘backloading’ of EU-US exports could lead to a near-term growth dip in Europe, followed by a rebound. All of this hinges on whether the US actually follows through on its threats, and whether Europe meaningfully responds
The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing: Still expanding during turbulent times
- Macro economy
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Global manufacturing PMI remained (just) in expansion territory at end-2025 – Following some US tariff related weakness in mid-2025, PMI manufacturing surveys indicate that global industry has remained in expansion mode in the second half of last year, though not at a spectacular pace. Since August 2025, the global manufacturing PMI has been back above the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction, with a peak of 50.9 in August and October. In December, this index dropped back slightly to a five-month low of 50.4 (November: 50.5). The picture was stable across the board, with the aggregate index for developed markets (DMs) staying at 50.5, and the aggregate index for emerging markets (EMs) slightly down to 50.4 (November: 50.5).
Chair Powell subpoena puts near-term rate cuts at risk
- Macro economy
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The Federal Reserve has received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department regarding Jerome Powell’s June congressional testimony about renovations at the Fed’s headquarters. Last year, it became apparent that the Trump administration viewed these renovations as a potential way to challenge Chair Powell. In a video statement last night, Powell emphasized that “the threat (…) is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” Meanwhile, Trump denied any knowledge of the investigation. A subpoena marks the beginning of an evidence-gathering process. This is an investigation, which may conclude without charges. If an indictment does occur, it will likely follow the precedent set by the Lisa Cook case, likely reaching the Supreme Court and taking considerable time.
Housing market monitor - Will 2026 be an unexceptional year?
- Macro economy
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We expect house prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and low supply outweigh slightly rising mortgage rates. The number of housing transactions decreases 1% in 2026 and decreases 4% in 2027 due to less sales of investment properties.
The Week Ahead - 12 - 16 January 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
The economic fall-out from Trump’s Greenland ambitions
- Macro economy
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President Trump has strongly re-stated his view that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States. The White House has said it is exploring options to do so and that ‘utilising the US military is always an option’. This comes against the background of the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend. This was seen as a demonstration that the Trump administration is willing to use military power to achieve its objectives and that international law is not at the forefront of its considerations. Various other Latin American countries appear to be at risk of a similar fate, but there have also been renewed threats in the direction of Greenland. Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, which is a member of both the EU and Nato. In this note, we set out the current state of play, possible scenarios and the implications for the European economy in a Q&A format.
Manufacturing positive about 2026 despite decline in exports
- Macro economy
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The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 51.1 in December, indicating a softer improvement in business conditions. Both production and new export orders declined slightly. Still, the industry is optimistic about 2026.
China - PMIs point to improving momentum at year-end
- Macro economy
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Both manufacturing PMIs rose back to expansion territory in December. Both composite PMIs up for the first time since September. • Still more targeted support and piecemeal monetary easing expected this year.
The Week Ahead - 22 - 26 December 2025
- Macro economy
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These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.