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1622  results

China - April data show hit from trade war pre-Geneva

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains.

Arjen van Dijkhuizen

The Week Ahead - 19 - 23 May 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Bill DivineyAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de KerkeArjen van DijkhuizenRogier Quaedvlieg(+4)

FX Weekly - New USD/CNY forecasts

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

Tariff de-escalation supports US dollar versus FX majors. This comes at a time when the dollar was already recovering. The recovery could continue, but we expect the long-term downtrend in the dollar to remain in place. We downgrade USD/CNY from 7.80 to 7.30 for end-2025.

Georgette BoeleArjen van Dijkhuizen(+1)

Macro Watch - Well, that de-escalated quickly

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

This morning, China and the US announced a significant de-escalation in the trade war, bringing the bilateral tariffs of 145% (on Chinese exports) and 125% (on US exports) down to 30% and 10% respectively.

Rogier QuaedvliegArjen van DijkhuizenBill Diviney(+2)

ESG Economist - Increasing our security could come at an environmental cost

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

As geopolitical fears mount, EU countries are discussing options to ramp up defence spending. Currently, there are three options: finance it with debt, raise taxes and/or cut spending elsewhere, or use EU programmes.

Casper BurgeringMarta Teixeira(+1)

The Week Ahead - 12 – 16 May 2025

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.

Rogier QuaedvliegBill DivineyArjen van DijkhuizenAggie van HuisselingJan-Paul van de Kerke(+4)

Bank of England – High inflation expectations to keep rate cuts slow and gradual

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

The Bank of England lowered interest rates today by 25bp, taking Bank Rate to 4.25%, as was widely expected. More surprising was the vote split, with two members voting for a larger 50bp cut, and two others voting for no change at all. We expect the BoE to continue cutting at a quarterly pace for the time being, with Bank Rate to settle at an elevated 3.5% in 2026.

Bill Diviney

Fed Watch - No rate cut in sight

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold today, maintaining the upper bound of the federal funds rate at 4.50%. The key update in the policy statement was that uncertainty about the outlook has increased further. Risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. Powell acknowledged that Trump's tariffs were higher than anticipated but noted that tariff talks are currently in a new phase of negotiations, which could change the picture materially, or not. Powell reiterated that the only response to this level of uncertainty is to wait and see, and that the Fed is well-positioned to react in a timely manner.

Rogier Quaedvlieg

ESG Economist - EU mulls softening climate ambitions

Article tags:
  • Sustainability

The European Commission is considering softening its 2040 emission reduction target according to reports. The EC may stick to a proposal for a 90% reduction by 2040, but make the emission reduction back-loaded with a slower pace to 2035. This target would be consistent with a carbon budget of around 1.7 degrees, even assuming an improbable collapse in emissions post 2035. In fact, even a 95% reduction would no longer be consistent with a 1.5 degree pathway given current emission trends. Meanwhile, the use of carbon credits to meet targets may also be allowed, which could push down on ETS prices, blunting incentives. It also seems likely that targets for 2030 and beyond will in any case be missed, which would make any 2040 ambition more difficult to be met.

Nick Kounis

China steps up support, trade talks coming up

Article tags:
  • Macro economy

China Macro: PBoC cuts policy rates and bank RRRs, and presents some targeted lending measures. US-China trade talks to start soon.

Arjen van Dijkhuizen

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