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Eurozone inflation surges; ECB to hike in April
- Macro economy
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Eurozone inflation jumped in March to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in February, in line with our forecast but a touch below consensus (2.6%). Core inflation in contrast moderated to 2.3%, in line with our forecast but also below consensus (2.4%). The rise was driven by a surge in petrol prices, as the rise in oil prices passed through to pump prices. This caused overall energy inflation to swing from a drag of -3.1% y/y in February to a 4.9% rise in March. Other categories of inflation were however comparatively muted, with food (2.3%), goods (0.5%), and services inflation (3.2%) all moderating. All of this reflects pre-Iran conflict inflation dynamics and we are likely to see a renewed pickup in these categories as the year progresses.
Dutch manufacturing sector reports highest inflation since 2022
- Macro economy
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The war in the Middle East is leading to a new wave of inflation, according to the first Nevi Dutch Manufacturing survey since the beginning of the war. Both purchase and output prices are rising at the fastest pace in more than three years.
Housing market monitor - Uncertainty is slowing the housing market
- Macro economy
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We expect home prices to rise 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Income growth and limited supply still outweigh rising mortgage rates. We expect the number of transactions to fall 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The decline in the number of transactions is linked to growing uncertainty and a limited number of newly added homes.
The Week Ahead: 30 March - 3 April 2026
- Macro economy
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These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Global economic forecasts as of 25 March 2026
- Macro economy
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Group Economics writes regularly about developments in the macro economy. Here are our latest forecasts on interest rate and currency developments, energy prices and the economic trend in developed and emerging markets.
China - Reviewing our forecasts on the Iran conflict
- Macro economy
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Macro data have gotten more ‘bullish’ just before Middle East escalation. Slight adjustment of our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on Iran conflict. Despite excess supply, cost-push pressures from energy price spike lead to higher inflation forecasts.
US - Actions have consequences
- Macro economy
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Outside direct and indirect effects of the AI boom, the US economy grew at near stall speed in 2025. Low labour supply growth led to near-zero job creation, but also prevented unemployment from rising. With tariff inflation yet to dissipate, the Iran conflict generates another policy-induced inflation shock.
The Netherlands - A new energy shock while still digesting the former
- Macro economy
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The fallout from the war in the Middle East means we have adjusted our forecasts. We have slightly downgraded our 2026 growth forecast, while upgrading our inflation forecast. We now expect growth in 2026 to average 1.5% (was 1.6%), and 1.2% in 2026 (was 1.4%). The uncertainty around inflation is high with an upgraded forecast of 2.8% in 2026 (was 2.2%). While the timing of the energy shock is unfavourable the economy is resilient.
Germany - Cautious recovery pressured by geopolitical uncertainty
- Macro economy
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A tentative recovery remains vulnerable as energy and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on the outlook. The sharp rise in factory orders at the end of 2025 has yet to translate into higher industrial production. Still, the allocation of special defence, infrastructure, and climate funds is gathering momentum.
Eurozone - An energy shock like nobody’s ever seen before
- Macro economy
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Europe faces a renewed energy shock, just when the remnants of the last one were finally fading. Still, as with most things emanating from Trumpworld, this shock is likely to hit differently to the last one. This time, we are seeing a sharp divergence in electricity prices among eurozone countries. ECB looks set to at least do an insurance hike – and probably another – to contain inflation expectations.
