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The Week Ahead - 30 June - 4 July 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Japan: The Land of the Rising Yields
We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
ESG Economist - Strong growth in EU clean tech trade
There is a strong likelihood that global demand for low-carbon technologies (also known as ‘clean tech’) will continue to grow in the coming years. In Europe, growth in demand for clean technologies will be driven mainly by the need to meet climate targets. It is therefore important not only to expand production capacity for clean technologies on the European continent, but above all to ensure that trade flows in clean technologies remain open and accessible. Understanding global trade flows in clean technologies and market developments in this segment is important for both businesses and policymakers involved in the energy transition. It helps to identify potential risks and opportunities. In this publication, we examine the main trends in trade flows of clean technologies in the EU-27. We not only highlight the ratios of imports and exports of clean technologies in the EU-27, but also show which countries are the most important trading partners for the EU-27. We note that there are significant differences between EU Member States in terms of trade in clean technologies and that only a handful of countries make a difference in this regard. Finally, we discuss the growth of trade in clean technologies. The data show that since 2017, trade in clean technologies has grown much more strongly than total trade in goods in the EU-27. We end this note with a conclusion.
NATO Summit - Defence spending to still rise significantly, even if 3.5% is unrealistic
NATO leaders today voted to officially raise the alliance’s defence spending target to 5% of GDP from 2% previously, comprised of 3.5% in core defence spending (the figure directly comparable to the previous 2% target) and 1.5% in infrastructure related to defence. With many countries likely to have already met the latter target, the really important number is the 3.5%, and it is here where there are major doubts over both the willingness but also the capability of meeting this target. Spain has a vague exemption from the target, while other countries openly doubted the target in the run up to the Summit.
US Watch - Why tariffs will not unleash the next inflation wave
We evaluate whether the initial tariff-induced inflationary shock could once again transform into a persistent inflation wave. The trade war could cause supply chain disruptions again, although after the de-escalation this is less likely. Export restrictions remain a threat. The US is already facing a negative labour supply shock, but it’s mostly absorbed by weaker demand. The lack of stimulus from the Big beautiful bill is a blessing in disguise, as more demand-inducing spending would be inflationary. While some circumstances are similar to those that led to the 2020-2022 inflation wave, they represent minor ripples, not the perfect storm. We highlight two alternative channels that could lead to inflation picking up again.
The Week Ahead - 23 - 27 June 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ESG Strategist - Do defence investments and ESG mix?
Investments in the defence sector are projected to rise in the coming years due to growing geopolitical concerns. Given that public investment alone is insufficient to meet the sector's needs, private investors are expected to ramp up their defence-related investments. However, this prompts several questions regarding which funds could participate, especially considering the social implications of this issue. Therefore, in this note, we explore which funds are currently investing in defence, assess whether legislation permits both ESG and non-ESG funds to invest in defence-related companies, and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the involvement of ESG funds, particularly Article 9 funds, in defence-related investments.
FOMC Watch - Forward-looking Fed holds rates anticipating rising inflation
The FOMC held rates in the 4.25-4.5% range, as expected. The press release stated that they judge that "uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated, " consistent with the de-escalation in the trade war with China a few days after the May FOMC meeting.
ESG Economist - The macroeconomic impact of transition
The fight against global warming and severe weather impacts requires a global shift from fossil-fueled economic activities to a clean energy-powered and energy-efficient economy. This transition towards achieving Net Zero emissions has significant economic implications. These implications become more apparent when examining specific components of GDP rather than just the overall macroeconomic numbers. Research and models consistently indicate that the negative economic impact of physical risks in a "hot house world" scenario is far greater and more permanent than any potential negative effects of transitioning, even if the transition is disorderly. Thus, there is a strong economic incentive to mitigate global warming as much as possible. This note explores the key transmission mechanisms of transition risk into the economy, aiming to clarify its effects on different parts of the economy.
Impact of Israel-Iran on inflation and interest rates
Muted reaction so far of energy prices to Israel-Iran escalation - The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns over the last few days about potential disruption to global energy supply. As a result, a risk premium has been priced into oil prices, which has oscillated between 5 and 10 dollars p/b depending on the prospects for escalation versus de-escalation. The relatively muted reaction of prices reflects that the impact on energy supply has been limited so far. At the same time, outside of potential impacts of the conflict, supply is growing more quickly than demand and that is expected to remain the case this year and next.