Key Macro Events 9 – 13 February 2026

United States – Due to the short government shutdown, the labour market report has beenpostponed until next week Wednesday. The report will be affected by methodological updates. The household survey will incorporate new census details, leading to a substantial drop in employment and the labour force in January. This is mainly backward looking and does not reflect January’s underlying conditions. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. Non farm payrolls will also be influenced by an update to the birth–death model. We expect payrolls to come in lower as a result, though with reduced risk of future negative revisions. For this Friday, we expect a 50k reading. Finally, we'll get an update on the benchmark revision over last year, which is expected to come in worse than the initial estimate. This could paint an even more dire picture of job growth over the past half year. The CPI report is also delayed, and will now be released next Friday. We expect both headline and core inflation to come in at 0.3% m/m, dropping both y/y rates at 2.5% due to favourable base effects. It is likely to pick up again over the coming months.

China – Consensus expectation including ours is for CPI inflation (Wednesday) to have fallen back inJanuary compared to end-2025, mainly driven by base effects from a year earlier and different timings of the Lunar New Year break. We expect average CPI inflation to rise to 0.9% this year (2025: 0.1%), although remaining low. Meanwhile, the annual decline in produces prices is expected to have eased further in January, partly on the back of rising commodity prices.