China Outlook 2020 – Growth to stabilise in Year of the Rat

Slowdown deepened in 2019 due to trade conflict, previous deleveraging and slump car sector ‘Phase One’ deal US-China reduces uncertainty, but does not eliminate it.2020: bottoming out industry will help economy to stabilise.Impact swine flu on consumer price inflation expected to fade this year.Monetary and fiscal easing will remain ‘piecemeal’.China’s debt levels keep rising, but at a lower pace.Risks remain: US-China tensions, transition risks, Hong Kong/Taiwan, debt burden.