China Watch – More signs of stabilisation

Official GDP growth slows further to 6.4% yoy in Q4-2018. Mixed data for December: PMIs point to slowdown industrial sector, … while hard data show signs of stabilisation. Collapse of trade growth feeds slowdown fears, but special factors at play. We expect Chinese economy to stabilise further … as Beijing steps up piecemeal fiscal and monetary support … and the likelihood of a US-China trade deal has risen.