Consumers in the coronavirus era

Co-authors: Nora Neuteboom and Pascal Golec

• Intelligent lockdown pushes y-o-y consumption 13% lower

  • Supermarkets and local speciality stores cashing in

  • Businesses digitising sales and consumers ordering more online

  • Difference between weekend and workday spending disappears

  • Durable goods purchases brought forward

• Easter weekend tells the lockdown tale: consumption 22% down

• Second round effects depress economy in 2021

• All in all, consumption hit harder than in the financial crisis…

• … we foresee 5% y-o-y contraction for 2020

• Strong procyclical consumption patterns put drag on recovery after the expected recession in 2020