European CO2 emissions reduction still well short of pace
Many major EU countries are still well behind on their CO2 reduction targets. While the transition to low or zero carbon is now well under way in many countries and climate sectors, the pace of this transition is often still slow. Particularly in transport, CO2 reduction is lagging, while in other climate sectors CO2 reduction trends are somewhat more positive in many countries.
Many major EU countries are still well behind on their CO2 reduction targets
While the transition to low or zero carbon is now well under way in many countries and climate sectors, the pace of this transition is often still slow
Particularly in transport, CO2 reduction is lagging, while in other climate sectors CO2 reduction trends are somewhat more positive in many countries
Investments in (new) technology to accelerate emissions reductions in the coming years should start to make a difference
The energy transition is now well underway in many EU countries and their largest climate sectors, only the pace of this transition is in many cases still too slow. Often, it is only exogenous shocks that trigger substantial CO2 reductions in countries, while a structurally fast-enough reduction pathway still seems far away. Between EU countries, however, we see differences in this. Not only the trends of countries' CO2 emissions differ, but also we notice strong variations in the reduction path in the different climate sectors per country.
Cycles in emissions
Dutch greenhouse gas emissions were 9% lower in 2022 than in 2021, the CBS recently reported. And according to figures from the Umweltbundesamt (UBA, the German environment agency), German greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.9% overall in 2022 compared to the previous year. The UK also fared better. An analysis by Carbon Brief showed that greenhouse gas emissions fell by 3.4% in 2022. All good news. But for the most part, the fall last year was due to an exogenous shock rather than a structural reduction in CO2 emissions through, for example, stronger growth in renewable energy. In 2022, it was record high energy prices that depressed EU energy demand and reduced CO2 emissions. Such external shocks more often have major impacts. Indeed, a similar fall also occurred in 2020, when Covid-19 crippled the global economic system and CO2 emissions shrank as a result. Not only did industrial activity decline abruptly, but there were also significantly fewer transport miles travelled globally. On the return to largely normal conditions in 2021 and global greenhouse gas emissions rose rapidly back to the pre-Covid levels seen in 2019. All in all, then, emissions trends within the Europe do not directly point to a structural reduction path in emissions. While emissions have fallen in many EU countries compared to 1990 levels, the erratic nature of the wave patterns of emissions each year is still relatively large. As a result, on balance many EU countries are still behind on their CO2 reduction targets.
Germany is by far the largest emitter of CO2 in Europe, followed by Poland, Italy and France. The Netherlands is the sixth largest emitter of CO2 within the EU. Germany was the largest emitter of CO2 in 1990 and this is also the case in 2021. However, over the past 30 years, these emissions have decreased by 36%, 8 percentage points more than the EU (27) average. But there are EU countries that have done better. For example, the Baltic states' CO2 emissions have fallen by around 65% on average and Romania's emissions have fallen by almost 55% over those 30 years. Most countries in the EU have reduced their CO2 emissions, but around 12 have reductions below the EU average, including the Netherlands. Four countries within the EU-27 even show an increase in CO2 emissions over the past 30 years. In Cyprus (+165%), Spain (+40%), Malta (+34%) and Luxembourg (+16%), CO2 emissions have only increased since 1990. The variations between EU countries are thus large and this is also the case in the development of CO2 emissions in different climate sectors. In some cases, emission reduction targets for sectors deviate from the EU target of 55% below 1990 CO2 emission levels. For simplicity, we assume the EU reduction target of 55% in 2030 in the following section.
Emissions built environment and transport by country
In the built environment within the EU-27, we see the sharpest declines in CO2 emissions especially in the smaller countries. But Germany, too, has seen its emissions decline by 42% since 1990. The country accounted for over 25% of emissions from the built environment within the EU-27 in 2021. The decrease in Germany's CO2 emissions from the built environment is mainly due to a variety of energy innovations and the replacement of outdated energy infrastructure. But higher levels of energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment and further digitalisation have also contributed to the reduction. With a share of around 35%, heat pumps have been the most important primary energy source for heating systems in buildings in Germany in recent years. Natural gas heating systems have a share of around 33%. Partly due to the measures taken, Germany's final energy consumption for buildings has fallen by more than 30% since 1990 and this has resulted in far fewer climate-damaging emissions. For the Netherlands, the 2050 target for the built environment is to get 7 million homes and 1 million other buildings off natural gas. Many different measures are possible to achieve this, the most important being insulation and use of renewable heat and electricity. Trends in CO2 emissions in the Netherlands from the built environment broadly follow CO2 trends in other Europe. Of all EU countries, 9 have now already reached the EU reduction target for 2030. These are mainly the smaller EU countries, especially in the Baltic States and the Nordic countries.
Of all the climate sectors discussed in this analysis, transport shows an anomalous trend in CO2 emissions. While the other subsectors have seen a sharp decline in EU-27 CO2 emissions over the past 30 years -built environment (-32%), energy (-39%) and industry (-41%) -, CO2 emissions from transport have increased by 16%. In as many as 20 of the EU-27 countries, CO2 emissions have increased since 1990, with Poland being the big outlier (at +223%). This gives Poland a 9% share of total transport emissions in the EU-27 in 2021. The country thus also pulls the EU average up considerably. In Germany - the largest contributor transport emissions at almost 20% - emissions have fallen by 10% over 30 years, although this has been in big waves over time. Italy too has transport emissions below 1990 levels. For all EU countries, here, no country has yet met the 2030 reduction target. This makes it the sector with probably the biggest challenge to reduce emissions more significantly in the coming years.
Despite falling visibly faster from 2008 onwards, CO2 emissions in Dutch transport are still 3% higher than the 1990 level in 2021. As in many countries in Europe, Covid-19 caused a big reduction in emissions in 2020, due to the many lockdowns. The reduction in CO2 in the pre-Covid-19 period in many EU-27 countries was as a direct result of the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) - and hybrid variants - and the improved fuel efficiency of many vehicles. But despite the rise of EVs and increased efficiency, CO2 emissions declined relatively slowly, partly due to greatly increased use. In any case, it is clear that the transition to zero-emission transport (and perhaps also low-emission vehicles running on renewable fuels) is of great importance to meet the EU climate targets for 2030 and 2050.
Emissions energy sector and industry by country
By 2021, 6 EU countries are now already below the 2030 emissions reduction target of 55%. These are again the Baltic states, but also Romania, Denmark and Luxembourg. In addition, some countries are already close to reaching the target, such as Bulgaria, Hungary, Malta and Slovakia. The remaining - mainly large - EU countries still need to take big steps in reducing CO2. In this, the Netherlands is clearly an outlier. The trends in CO2 emissions in the Netherlands differ greatly from the EU-27 average and also our neighbouring countries. While almost all EU-27 countries are now below 1990 levels, the Netherlands (but also Cyprus) still remains above them. The fact that CO2 emissions in the Netherlands have remained at high levels for so long is mainly due to the high importance of natural gas in the energy mix, but also the influence of oil and coal. And still the Netherlands has a relatively high share of fossil fuels, both in the total energy supply and in the electricity mix, and a relatively low share of renewable energy. Shifting this energy mix to a more renewable variant is an important part of a successful transition to net zero emissions. Although Dutch electricity demand is somewhat modest at the moment, we expect it to grow enormously in the coming years. Strong growth is foreseen in almost all sectors, especially for industry and transport. To further reduce energy emissions in the EU-27 energy sector, the share of renewables needs to be accelerated, combined with reduced energy consumption through increased efficiency. In addition, nuclear energy may also play a role.
In only one country within the EU-27 have industrial CO2 emissions increased over the last 30 years. In Austria, industrial CO2 emissions in 2021 are about 5% above 1990 levels. In the Netherlands, industrial CO2 emissions have fallen by 17% since 1990. The decline is obviously a good sign, but the pace is well below the EU-27 average of -41%. This puts the Netherlands in fifth position (out of 27) with countries that have reduced their industrial CO2 emissions the least. Germany, with a 23% share of total EU-27 industrial CO2 emissions, is the largest industrial emitter. The country broadly follows the trend of the EU-27 average. However, the UK has shown an almost constant decline in CO2 emissions since the mid-1990s. As a result, the country has now reduced CO2 emissions in industry by half. The European Commission (EC) indicated that construction of roadmaps in terms of emission reductions is the responsibility of industry itself. Many of these roadmaps show that supportive policies from the government are an indispensable part of meeting emission reduction targets.
Decarbonisation
To move the EU-27 countries towards climate neutrality, much work remains to be done. Our analysis shows that many countries - especially large ones - are still well behind, so time is running out. But despite the relatively slow pace of CO2 reduction in some countries, the transition to low or zero carbon is now well under way. We can see this from the trends in CO2 emissions in major climate sectors by country. However, it is noticeable here that the transport sector in particular lags far behind other sectors in reducing CO2. We also see that in this sector, no country has now met the 2030 EU emission reduction target, while this is frequently the case in the other climate sectors. Technology can start making a difference here in the coming years. It is a good way to bring emission reduction more up to speed. Here, electrification, efficiency measures, fuel substitution (renewable fuels instead of fossil fuels) and renewable energy generation (such as from solar, wind, geothermal, etc.) in particular are likely to make up the difference in the coming period. Investment in these technologies and also the supporting infrastructure (such as electricity grids) is relatively high at the moment, but in the longer term it will actually deliver significant gains both ecologically and economically.