The Week Ahead - 4 - 15 August 2025

United States – CPI inflation will continue its gradual upwards trend as tariffs continue to pass through. We expect the core CPI measure to come in at 0.3% m/m, putting the y/y rate at 3.0%, while the headline figure remains somewhat milder at 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y. Later, retail sales will likely come in flat, while the control group retail sales, which excludes cars, may come in a lot stronger.

Eurozone – The second estimate of GDP could see a downward revision if the unwind of frontloading of exports to the US turns out to be bigger than in the first estimate. This would also be visible in the trade balance data for June, released Monday 18 August. Retail sales are likely to have rebounded in June after a weak May, consistent with the broader improvement in domestic demand.

UK – We expect the Bank of England to lower rates by 25bp, in line with market expectations. Focus will be on the Monetary Policy Report and the Bank’s latest forecasts. Inflation has been coming in more firm than expected, likely leading to an upgrade of staff inflation forecasts. We expect two further rate cuts by February, but do not rule out an earlier pause in cuts given stubbornly elevated inflationary pressure.