Global Monthly – Post-crisis recovery not until 2021

Since the coronavirus made landfall outside China and escalated at breakneck speed into a pandemic, draconian government measures to halt social (and hence economic) life and to stem the spread of the disease have followed in rapid succession. The ‘recession territory’ we referred to as a possibility on 4 March has meanwhile worsened into a deeper worldwide recession with a less favourable recovery outlook. We have thus reached the next phase in the escalation diagram sketched below.