Improving outlook for Dutch industry

The events concerning Iran over the past few days cause uncertainty, since these could lead to a strong increase of energy prices. However, the results of the February Nevi survey had already come in when the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Saturday morning.

Foreign demand fell slightly in February, but the decline is likely to be temporary. Internationally, conditions are clearly starting to improve. The preliminary purchasing managers' index for the eurozone manufacturing sector has risen to 50.8, the highest score in almost four years. This was mainly due to good survey results from Germany, where the industry saw conditions improve for the first time since 2022. It is quite possible that European industry will somewhat leave behind the years of malaise that were ushered in four years ago by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused a fast increase in energy prices and interest rates. The first positive effects of the enormous investments in defence are also appearing. Both German and Dutch defence are placing large orders with local production companies for military equipment.

Of course, there are still plenty of problems. For example, energy-intensive industries such as the chemical industry are still struggling with high energy prices in Europe. The car industry, for example, is also seriously hampered by increased Chinese competition. But it seems that the demand for machine tools, for example, is starting to improve, which could benefit Germany and the Netherlands, for example. Since last summer, Dutch industry has been at the forefront of the recovery, thanks to substantial investments in the chip industry, which are driving demand for chip machines. Meanwhile, Germans are also seeing their exports pick up, allowing more companies to benefit from recovery.

Although new orders fell in February for the Dutch manufacturing industry, mainly due to a decline in new export orders, optimism also recovered in the Netherlands, after a sharp decline in January. Around 43% of respondents to the Nevi survey expect growth this year, amid reports higher sales pipelines.

Troubled industries such as the chemical industry and the automotive industry will be eagerly awaiting the European Commission's long-awaited legislative proposal, the Industrial Accelerator Act. Due to the fact that negotiations are still ongoing, its presentation has been postponed several times, now to Wednesday 4 March. The law should stimulate the demand for European products, among other things through adjustments to procurement rules.