Macro Weekly – US consumers down but not out

Retail sales data were weak raising concerns about the US consumer, one of the few bright spots in the global economy.Although consumer spending growth looks to have lost momentum real income growth is still healthy, while confidence is still elevated.We still judge that consumer spending will grow at a decent pace, albeit slowing compared to the buoyant pace we saw for much of last year.We have revised down our eurozone GDP forecast to take it further below consensus on the weakness in exports and capital spending.The ECB looks likely to keep policy easy for even longer.Spanish elections add to European political risk.Chances of a trade truce between the US and China look to be rising.