Macro Weekly – Will tailwinds offset headwinds on time?

If a US-China trade deal becomes real, the number one risk for the global economy eases. The more dovish monetary policy stance of the main central banks takes time to filter through, but is expected to gradually give economies tailwind later this year. Meanwhile trade distortions are starting to hit manufacturing export orders sharply... hurting European export-driven economies most. Tight labor markets, rising wages and low unemployment keep consumers spending and most economies resilient… but for how long will they hold?