The Week Ahead - 12 - 16 January 2026
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – We expect strong CPI readings for December, effectively a catch-up for the shutdown-affected readings for October and November. We expect both headline and core to come in at 0.4% m/m, putting the 3-month average in the 0.2% territory.
We expect Wednesday's retail sales to be robust, with the GDP-relevant control group sales at 0.5%, and the headline, which also includes amongst others, cars, coming in at a stronger 0.6%.
Eurozone – Incoming country data suggests industrial production picked up in November on a monthly basis while staying relatively subdued in annual terms. Trade data will be closely watched for export performance to the US, as exports continue to find a new post-tariff equilibrium.
China – Exports and imports for December (Wednesday) are expected to slow in annual growth terms. This mainly effects a base effect from end-2024. More broadly, exports have held up well last year despite higher US tariffs, with a drop in exports to the US more than offset by higher exports to other destinations including the EU.