The week ahead - 21 - 25 October 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – Wednesday evening we'll get the new Fed Beige Book. The last release played an important role in shaping the narrative that led to the 50 bps cut over the expected 25 bps. This release will likely reflect the impact of the hurricanes, but may be a more positive than last month on the back of solid income growth and retail spending. Thursday sees the release of the October S&P PMIs. We expect manufacturing to bounce back somewhat to 48.0, and services to remain strong at 55.4.
Eurozone – We expect the flash manufacturing PMI to pick up a little from low levels, while the services PMI could signal a further softening in momentum. This would leave the composite PMI broadly steady, suggesting a continued stalling in the recovery. A host of ECB Governing Council members are set to speak at the Washington IMF meetings, and markets will be looking for further detail on the shift in thinking since Thursday’s rate cut, and in particular the chances that the ECB might step up the pace of interest rate cuts.
China – Following cuts in several policy rates last month, we expect China’s loan prime rates also to be cut on Monday. We expect the 1-year loan prime rate to be lowered by 20bp, to 3.15%, in line with consensus.