The week ahead: 24 - 28 June 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – The primary release next week is the PCE deflator. We expect core inflation to come in at 0.1%, slightly below the CPI inflation over the same period. Headline PCE is expected to move horizontally (0.0% m/m). These monthly changes imply that y/y core and headline will both drop to 2.6%. Thursday evening, Friday morning European time, the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place, where we'll be looking out for news on planned economic policy and changes in polling.
Eurozone – Germany’s Ifo is expected to hold around levels which suggest a continued modest recovery in the economy. The flash HICP inflation data for France will give an early read on June inflation for the broader eurozone. We expect June inflation to show a modest cooling in the important services component after a strong May reading, and we may get a hint of this in the France data. Finally, the election TV debate in France on Tuesday evening could generate some headline risk for financial markets.