The Week Ahead - 25 August - 5 September 2025

United States – We expect PCE inflation to come in a bit less hot than CPI and especially PPI, based on the various subcomponents’ contribution to PCE. We expect a core reading of 0.3% m/m, raising the y/y rate to 2.9%. A preliminary nowcast of non-farm payrolls two weeks from now suggests an uptick on the back of lower policy uncertainty.