The Week Ahead - 26 - 30 May 2025

US – Our nowcasts for Friday's PCE release suggest low 0.1% m/m readings for both headline and core inflation, with the y/y dropping to 2.1 and 2.5% respectively. Similar to the CPI reading earlier this month, increases in goods inflation are largely offset by mild services inflation readings. On Wednesday we get the Fed minutes of the meeting where the Fed doubled down on the wait-and-see narrative, and they stated that risks to both inflation and employment had risen.