The week ahead: 29 July - 2 August 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – Wednesday evening, we expect the FOMC to keep rates on hold, but for Powell to strike a generally more doveish tone in line with recent communication. He will confirm progress on inflation and highlight the increasing evidence of a cooling down of the labor market. While not formally pre-announcing a September cut, we expect the sentiment of the press conference to be consistent with such a path. On Friday, US labor data is released. We expect Nonfarm-payrolls to show some signs of slowing at 195k, but to not drop drastically. The unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.1% with jobless claims data in July hovering at similar levels to June.
Eurozone – On Tuesday the first estimate of second quarter GDP will be released. After GDP expanded by 0.3% q/q in Q1, we expect growth to slow down to 0.2% q/q in Q2. Domestic demand has likely picked up in the second quarter and carried growth. Helped by solid activity in the services sector and rising real incomes. The slump in manufacturing has likely contributed to a negative contribution from net-exports.
Eurozone – On Wednesday eurozone HICP inflation for July will be released. We expect headline inflation to decline to 2.3% (down from 2.5% in June), and core inflation to decrease to 2.6% (down from 2.9% in June).
The Netherlands – On Wednesday Dutch CPI inflation for July will be published. CPI is expected to ease to 3.0% down from 3.2% in June. Fading out of industrial goods inflation and still high services inflation keep inflation in the Netherlands elevated.