The Week Ahead - 3 - 7 November 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – With no end in sight for the government shutdown, third party data releases in the upcoming week carry extra weight. In particular, we'll get new ISM readings, and more importantly ADP employment change and JOLTS hiring data, which will provide some signal on the state of the labour market. We refrain from even making a non-farm payroll or unemployment forecast for October data, given that we also do not have September data. We'll also be on the lookout for a number of Fed speakers, who are likely to reflect on this week's hawkish cut, which may provide more insight in the likelihood of a December pause.
China – Following the publication of the official manufacturing PMI for October today, the alternative one published by RatingDog on Monday is expected to come down as well, but to stay above the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction. RatingDog’s services PMI (Wednesday) is expected to stay well above this neutral mark. On Friday, annual growth of exports and imports for October is expected to have slowed compared to September, partly reflecting base effects from a year ago.