The week ahead: 5 - 9 August 2024

United States – Monday sees the release of the ISM services index which surprised to the downside last month, dropping by 5 full points to 48.8. We expect it to rebound to 51.0, in line with its longer term, gradually, slowing trend.

Eurozone – The German industrial sector is likely to remain in the doldrums, with industrial production and factory orders expected to stay weak. This would be consistent with signals coming from the manufacturing PMI. Eurozone retail sales in contrast are expected to gain some momentum, helped by rising real incomes. This would follow the very strong growth in car registrations in June.