The week ahead: 8 - 12 July 2024

United States – We expect June Core CPI to come in at 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y), on the back of used car prices. Headline CPI is likely to be a bit lower 0.1% (3.0% y/y), thanks to a decline in gasoline prices. Chair Powell will also give his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate and House. We expect him to repeat a narrative similar to the past months, that more confidence is needed to cut rates.

China – Data on FX reserves, lending, inflation, and foreign trade will come out next week. In line with consensus, we expect CPI inflation to pick up a bit, but to stay subdued reflecting weak domestic demand, and deflation in producer prices to fade further. Annual growth of exports and imports is expected to accelerate somewhat, partly reflecting base effects.