US Watch: Sharper slowdown, softer landing

We expect a sharper 2019 slowdown, but a softer landing in 2020. We downgrade our 2019 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp to 2.3%, and raise our 2020 growth forecast by 0.2pp to 1.9%. The weaker 2019 forecast comes on the back of a manufacturing downturn, and the government shutdown. The higher 2020 growth forecast is on the back of easier Fed policy and upside risks to government spending. Consumption should remain a key support for growth given stronger wage growth and solid household balance sheets.