US Watch – This time it’s different

The covid-19 recession is unfolding like no other – in its cause, speed, and depth. The unique nature of the downturn means the recovery is likely to be different, too. We expect unemployment to rise to levels not seen since the Great Depression … but it is likely that many of the newly unemployed will quickly return to work. There will, nonetheless, be significant lasting damage done to the economy. Forecast uncertainty is unprecedented; we present three plausible scenarios. Outcomes will depend significantly on pandemic control, and fiscal policy success (or failure).