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Macro Watch - UK budget pleases bond markets; BoE to cut in December
- Macro economy
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Backloaded belt tightening reflects backloaded growth downgrade. Fiscal pain is delayed, yes, but so is the forecasting pain. BoE now more likely to deliver a Christmas rate cut. Recovery Sterling likely in the near term.
FX Outlook 2026 - More dollar weakness ahead
- Macro economy
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US dollar is overvalued and more weakness in 2026. Narrowing rate spreads and German spending support euro, but French fiscal concerns may limit gains. Narrowing US-Japan rate differentials and dollar weakness to support the yen.
FX Special - Why the US dollar is still overvalued
- Macro economy
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The US dollar is substantially overvalued according to different metrics including our own fundamental model estimates. The Japanese yen and the euro are the most undervalued versus dollar. Cyclical drivers and FX hedging have mainly contributed to dollar weakness in 2025. In our forecast horizon we expect the dollar to weaken further due to negative cyclical developments and more concerns on the structural factors.
ESG Economist - Is carbon capture economically viable?
- Sustainability
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To achieve the global goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to below 2°C (preferably 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels, we need a mix of solutions. These include reducing CO₂ emissions, capturing emissions directly from combustion, and removing CO₂ from the atmosphere. While much focus has been on reducing emissions (like using renewable energy or sustainable fuels), carbon capture and storage (CCS) is gaining attention, especially for hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry and transport (shipping).
ESG Economist - Synthetic fuel challenges for mobility
- Sustainability
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Fossil fuels have long been the backbone of our global economy, powering industries, transportation, and households. In 2023, they accounted for nearly 80% of the global energy supply, according to the IEA. However, as the world races to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, our reliance on fossil fuels must drastically decrease. The solution seems simple: replace fossil fuels with alternatives that emit less or no carbon dioxide. But in reality, this transition is anything but straightforward. The path to more sustainable energy involves a complex landscape of alternative fuels, each with unique characteristics. Transitioning to these fuels also requires significant adjustments, such as changes to engines, infrastructure, and storage systems. Additionally, challenges like limited production capacity, high costs, and competition for green electricity and raw materials make the widespread adoption of alternative fuels even more difficult. In some cases, the technologies needed to produce these fuels at scale are still in development. Despite these obstacles, more sustainable fuels—in our report referred to as synthetic fuels—will play a vital role in the global journey toward a net-zero economy. This report dives into the world of these fuels, exploring if there is enough supply of affordable synthetic fuels for the hard to abate sectors in mobility namely shipping, aviation and trucking.
ECB rate cut cycle most likely over
- Macro economy
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Eurozone Q2 GDP Unchanged at 0.1%; we changed our ECB-view and now expect the ECB to Keep Rates on Hold at 2%
Japan - The Land of the Rising Yields
- Macro economy
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We expect drags from US tariffs to keep a lid on Japanese growth. Trade talks with the US are taking quite some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its inflation forecasts, but upside risks remain. We expect the BoJ to stay on a cautious, gradual hiking path. In its June meeting, the BoJ announced to slow its pace of tapering, as expected. High public debt and rising rates pose challenges, but there are risk-mitigating factors. Meanwhile, the Japanese government bond curve has steepened due to a higher term premium. We do not have indications for structural US debt outflows by Japanese investors, yet. We expect the yen to appreciate versus the US dollar in 2025-2026.
FX Weekly - New USD/CNY forecasts
- Macro economy
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Tariff de-escalation supports US dollar versus FX majors. This comes at a time when the dollar was already recovering. The recovery could continue, but we expect the long-term downtrend in the dollar to remain in place. We downgrade USD/CNY from 7.80 to 7.30 for end-2025.
ESG Economist - NZBA loosens climate ambitions
- Sustainability
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The Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) provides guidance to banks on setting climate goals. Initially, the NZBA had a key principle that banks should aim to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 and work towards transitioning to a net-zero economy by 2050. Banks committed to structure their portfolios according to these guidelines. On April 15, the NZBA released version 3 of its key principles[1]. These principles still align with the Paris Agreement, but the requirement to specifically target 1.5°C has been removed. This change gives banks more flexibility in choosing their paths to reducing emissions. In this note, we consider the potential impact of this change on emission reduction efforts.
ESG Economist - Carbon price for shipping below transition cost
- Sustainability
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International shipping is responsible for about 2% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. This means it plays a part in reaching net-zero emissions, which would help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. The shipping industry follows various regulations and targets from organizations like the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Poseidon Principles, and the European Commission's Fit for 55 initiative. Shipping was included in the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2024. During the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (MEPC 83) from April 7-11, policy measures were discussed to meet the emissions targets set in the IMO's 2023 strategy. This publication focuses on the results of this meeting and what they mean for the maritime shipping industry.
