Our research
Access all our publications and columns. Use the filters to easily find what content you are looking for.
Filters
All publications
171 results
Supply shortage keeps oil and product prices firm
- Macro economy
-
Oil prices have rebounded after tensions escalated and flows through the Strait have declined. The price impact has been limited by alternative export routes, dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers and high US oil production but crucially also lower demand. Oil demand declined by 6.8 million barrels per day between end-2025 and June 2026, with China and Asia accounting for most of the fall. A near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily lower oil prices, but the market is still expected to remain tight. Later in the year, recovering Asian demand, higher refinery activity and the need to rebuild low inventories are expected to support higher oil prices before a more sustainable decline next year. Because of a near-term deal some refinery capacity will likely come back online. But constrained refinery capacity, and higher demand for products will keep prices elevated.
FX Weekly - Policy risks for the dollar
- Macro economy
-
FX options markets signalled renewed dollar strength. Markets viewed Warsh’s message as hawkish, raising the probability of a September Fed rate hike to over 65% and supporting the dollar. Dollar strength may prove temporary if the Fed keeps rates unchanged…and/or if higher US yields mainly reflect deficit concerns and a higher risk premium. No Fed rate hike and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike in September could support the yen.
FX Weekly - Pressure on the dollar builds
- Macro economy
-
US dollar sentiment is weakening, as US Treasury yields have been volatile and fiscal concerns remain elevated. The Treasury’s larger buyback programme has not reassured markets, and investors still worry about US debt dynamics and rising risk premia. The euro has benefited from dollar weakness, and further dollar downside could support EUR/USD. EUR/PLN has moved higher as central bank expectations diverge, with the NBP seen as potentially more dovish while the ECB is expected to hike once more.
FX Weekly - Dollar struggles despite higher US yields
- Macro economy
-
Energy prices are rising due to the US-Iran standoff, supporting oil- and gas-linked currencies such as the Norwegian krone, while the Canadian dollar is held back by tariff concerns. US-Japan yen intervention is still affecting markets, mainly through the US Treasury market rather than the yen itself. US yields have risen partly because investors demand a higher term premium. Higher US yields are not supporting the dollar, because they reflect risk and uncertainty rather than stronger growth. EUR/USD has moved above 1.16 and further dollar weakness is expected.
FX Weekly - Markets test the line on yen weakness
- Macro economy
-
The yen remains deeply undervalued, but weakness reflects structural and policy factors. Coordinated US-Japan intervention suggests authorities are increasingly uncomfortable with yen weakness. FX markets may require repeated action before they believe a line has been drawn. EUR/USD should remain range-bound until US data and central bank events provide clearer direction.
FX Weekly - Volatile moves in narrow ranges
- Macro economy
-
Movement in EUR/USD has been volatile…but the overall range has remained relatively narrow. This kind of behaviour could continue during holiday season. EUR/CHF also range-bound. The FX Weekly will have a summer break until mid-August.
FX Weekly - Energy prices back in focus
- Macro economy
-
The euro’s sensitivity to energy prices has shifted, but the recent rise in energy prices has again weighed on the currency. Financial markets are testing how far the authorities will tolerate yen weakness. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 bp and signalled that further rate hikes are likely.
FX Weekly - Heightened risk of intervention in the yen
- Macro economy
-
Option-market signals suggest EUR/USD may struggle to stay below 1.1350. USD/JPY was near multi-decade highs and this raises intervention risk. The market is long dollars and heavily short yen, making a sharp reversal possible. EUR/USD forecasts trimmed slightly. We still expect dollar weakness, but now see EUR/USD at 1.18 by end-2026 and 1.23 by end-2027.
Spotlight - Oil’s bearish turn premature, but worst looks behind us
- Natural resources
-
Oil prices have fallen sharply, but current levels appear low relative to tight physical market conditions. Inventories remain low, while summer travel and refinery activity should support oil demand. Supply is expected to recover next year, while demand growth should be limited by ongoing decarbonisation in transport. Our new end-year forecasts are USD 80 per barrel for Brent and USD 75 for WTI; for end-2027 we expect USD 70 for Brent and USD 65 for WTI.
FX Weekly - Dollar rally masks lingering risks
- Macro economy
-
The dollar rally has been driven mainly by a reassessment of the Fed outlook. Markets may have gone too far in pricing in Fed rate hikes; we still expect rate cuts. Extreme positioning in sterling and yen increases the risk of sharp currency moves. Dollar strength may continue over the summer, but US risks could return to focus after the holiday period.
