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NGEU - related growth at risk of undershooting
- Macro economy
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The EU remains the single largest issuer in the euro SSA market, having placed more than EUR 160bn in bonds in 2025 and expected to raise another EUR 90bn in the first half of 2026 alone. The core of this issuance has been under the NextGeneration EU (NGEU) programme, with its main instrument being the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The NGEU was launched in 2021 to provide support following the Covid-19 pandemic, and is now approaching its final year. In fact, all disbursements under the RRF must occur before the year-end, with payment requests by Member States having to be submitted before 31st of August 2026. On the back of this, this note examines RRF fund spending patterns and its effect on GDP by addressing five main questions: 1. How do RRF disbursements stack up against total envelopes? 2. Are Member States expected to receive the remaining funds before the 2026 deadline? 3. Are Member States on track for spending the already received RRF funds? 4. How have EU Member States spent the RRF funds? 5. What will be the impact on growth if EU countries do not fulfil all of their investment plans?
Rates Strategist - Belgium among EU’s most energy-vulnerable economies
- Natural resources
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In light of what is shaping up to be one of the biggest global energy supply shocks in history, the question arises on how exposed EU countries are to potential energy shocks. In this note, we assess such exposure by looking at both dependency—how much nations rely on external sources for their oil and gas—and resilience, meaning their capacity to withstand and adapt to disruptions or price surges. By examining these factors, we can better understand which countries face the greatest risks and which demonstrate stronger ability to cope with sudden changes in energy supply or cost.
Rates Strategist - How do oil and gas shocks impact bond markets?
- Sustainability
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Due to the war in Iran, oil and gas prices have risen significantly since the start of this month, resulting in falling equity prices and rising bond yields across the globe. The way in which both, ECB expectations and the bond market respond to an oil and gas price shock varies depending on the situation (see for example chart below). In this note, we aim to disentangle how different oil and gas shocks impact ECB expectations and Bund yields, based on available academic research. This helps market participants to understand what to expect from Bund curves in the short- and long-term following an oil or gas shock.
ESG Strategist - Utilities poised to boost ESG Bond issuance
- Sustainability
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Euro-ESG bond issuance fell 7% in 2025 compared to 2024. This decrease was driven by regulatory and political shifts worldwide, particularly the relaxation of some criteria to meet the EU’s 2040 targets and the reduction by 90% in companies within scope of the CSRD. Looking forward to 2026, ESG issuance is expected to rise by 14% to EUR 260 bn. Growth will be fuelled by corporate issuance – especially utilities – and sovereign issuers. As for financial institutions, ESG issuance is projected to remain broadly stable versus last year.
ESG Strategist – EuGBs outperform regular green bonds
- Sustainability
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Bonds issued under the EU Green Bond Standard (EuGBs) outperform regular green bonds both in primary and secondary markets, with higher investor demand and stronger pricing performance. On average, EuGBs attract larger orderbooks at issuance and price at lower new issue premia than regular green bonds and other investment-grade bonds issued during the same timeframe, however, this trend is most prominently visible within corporate bond issuers. After issuance, EuGBs experience more significant spread tightening than regular green bonds, especially in SSA and corporate bonds, with EuGBs from banks actually underperforming in secondary market. EuGBs exhibit lower volatility in secondary markets compared to regular green bonds, as measured by the standard deviation of z-spreads. Our findings are constrained by the small sample size of EuGBs issued year-to-date, limited comparability across ratings and sub-sectors, and the inability to conduct more robust statistical analyses.
ESG Strategist – Investigating commonly-cited factors of the greenium
- Sustainability
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Earlier this year, we wrote about how euro investment grade (IG) green bonds exhibit lower volatility and, in most cases, also offer slightly higher liquidity, the latter based on Bloomberg LQA scores, bid-ask spread relationships and relative trading volumes [1]. Our analysis helps to explain the presence of a greenium over time: that is, why investors might be willing to accept a higher price (lower spread) for green bonds in comparison to non-green bonds. In this note, we delve further into the dynamics of the greenium. More specifically, we are interested in understanding the potential drivers of the greenium and if existing research on the topic is still valid when considering more recent data.
ABN AMRO ESG Investor Survey – 2H 2025
- Macro economy
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ABN AMRO is pleased to share the outcome of its annual investor survey. The survey is aimed at better understanding investors' behaviour, preferences and screening criteria for fixed income ESG investing. The outcome of the survey will also be presented during a webinar held on Monday, the 20th of October, at 14h CET.
ESG Strategist – EU ETS costs will not eat into company’s profits
- Sustainability
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In this note, we analyze the impact of increasing ETS prices on companies’ results from the sectors under EU ETS and EU ETS2. According to our results, the impact on the electricity sector is quite benign, especially if we consider that the cost pass through is limited to 42%.
ESG Strategist – Limited impact expected from changes to the ECB collateral framework
- Sustainability
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The ECB has recently announced a change to its collateral framework. From the second half of 2026, haircuts to non-financial institutions’ bonds will be adjusted by a climate factor. The latter will serve as a buffer, mitigating the potential financial impact of climate-related uncertainties on collateral value and is calculated based on a sector-specific stressor, an issuer-specific exposure and an asset-specific vulnerability.
ESG Strategist - Do defence investments and ESG mix?
- Sustainability
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Investments in the defence sector are projected to rise in the coming years due to growing geopolitical concerns. Given that public investment alone is insufficient to meet the sector's needs, private investors are expected to ramp up their defence-related investments. However, this prompts several questions regarding which funds could participate, especially considering the social implications of this issue. Therefore, in this note, we explore which funds are currently investing in defence, assess whether legislation permits both ESG and non-ESG funds to invest in defence-related companies, and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the involvement of ESG funds, particularly Article 9 funds, in defence-related investments.
