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Special Global Outlook 2026 - We need to talk about Exorbitant Privilege
- Macro economy
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Exorbitant Privilege: The erosion of US institutions has surprised in its speed and scope. What are the risks in 2026, and can Europe step up to fill some of the void?
Global Outlook 2026 - The shifting world order
- Macro economy
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The transition from one world order to another is in full swing, but it is still unclear how that new world order will look. The advent of AI, China’s rise, and the US’s relative decline offer challenges but also opportunities. The trade war weapon du jour has shifted from tariffs to chokepoints, creating new challenges for governments and manufacturers. Fiscal troubles in France and the UK are likely to remain a worry. Global growth has been remarkably resilient given the headwinds. We expect that resilience to continue in 2026, albeit with considerable risks.
ECB increasingly comfortable on hold
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its key policy interest rates steady for the third successive meeting and its commentary suggested that it is increasingly comfortable maintaining this policy stance going forward.
ECB Watch - A less independent Fed could mean more ECB cuts
- Macro economy
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The US Federal Reserve is coming under unprecedented pressure as an independent institution. As the central bank standing behind the world’s reserve currency – and the world’s biggest, most liquid bond market – this has implications that reach well beyond US shores. Our base case sees the Fed turning dovish from next year onwards, but not fully losing its independence. In that regard, whether Trump succeeds in firing board member Lisa Cook before February 2026 is the key factor to watch [1]. In this Q&A, we explore from a big picture perspective what impact the Fed’s potential loss of independence may have on the ECB, the eurozone economy and on financial markets. We consider both the spillovers from the Fed’s actions as well whether the ECB could come under similar pressure from European politicians.
ECB set to stay on hold, despite inflation undershoot
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its policy rates on hold in September, for the second consecutive meeting.
ECB preview: The ECB’s rate cut cycle…it’s probably over
- Macro economy
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The Governing Council kept policy on hold in July, and is likely to remain on hold at the September meeting and for the foreseeable future.
ECB rate cut cycle most likely over
- Macro economy
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Eurozone Q2 GDP Unchanged at 0.1%; we changed our ECB-view and now expect the ECB to Keep Rates on Hold at 2%
An unbalanced US-EU trade deal, given the EU’s weak hand
- Macro economy
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The US and the EU signed a trade deal last night that watered down the significant rise in tariffs that was due on 1 August, at which point the US administration was set to increase tariffs from the current 10% to 30%.
ECB happy on hold for now
- Macro economy
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The ECB kept its key policy rates on hold as expected.
Impact of Israel-Iran on inflation and interest rates
- Macro economy
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Muted reaction so far of energy prices to Israel-Iran escalation - The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns over the last few days about potential disruption to global energy supply. As a result, a risk premium has been priced into oil prices, which has oscillated between 5 and 10 dollars p/b depending on the prospects for escalation versus de-escalation. The relatively muted reaction of prices reflects that the impact on energy supply has been limited so far. At the same time, outside of potential impacts of the conflict, supply is growing more quickly than demand and that is expected to remain the case this year and next.
