Climate ambition set to weaken under a new Dutch government
Following the Dutch elections, a right-wing coalition is most likely. Based on the party programmes, it seems likely that climate ambitions will be watered down significantly. There is quite some overlap in the manifestos on stepping up nuclear power, continued use of natural gas and a slowdown of the renewable roll-out, while the PVV wants to scrap earlier agreed upon carbon reduction commitments completely.
Following the elections in the Netherlands, a PVV-led-right-wing coalition with VVD and NSC (81 seats) is most likely, possibly including the BBB
Based on the climate and energy parts of the manifestos of the parties, it seems likely that, under such a coalition, climate ambitions will be watered down significantly
There is quite some overlap in the manifestos on stepping up nuclear power, continued use of natural gas and a slowdown of the renewable roll-out, while the PVV wants to scrap earlier agreed upon carbon reduction commitments completely
In the run-up to the elections, the currently largest governing party – VVD – was widely expected to become again the winner. As such, in terms of climate and energy policy, not that much change was expected. However, following the surprising win of the far-right PVV party, the outlook for climate policy could change significantly. We summarize the key climate & energy plans in the election manifestos of the parties that could form a right-wing coalition together with the PVV to assess the impact on climate policy. Before that, we briefly summarise the election results and possible coalition.
A right-wing coalition is most likely
The PVV – a far-right party with leader Geert Wilders – surprised in the Dutch elections by winning 37 out of the 150 seats. The three following parties are, respectively, GroenLinks/PvdA (green-labour) with 25 seats, VVD (liberal centre-right) with 24 seats, and new-comer NSC (centre-right) with 20 seats. Compared to previous elections D66 (progressive liberal), VVD and CDA (conservative), lost with 15, 10 and 10 seats respectively. The previous coalition consisting of VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie lost 37 seats in total.
During the provincial elections in March, the new farmer movement – the BBB – won 16 seats in the senate (7 seats in yesterday’s parliamentary elections). The other two largest parties in the senate are GroenLinks/PvdA with 14 seats and the VVD with 10 seats. In the senate, the PVV is relatively small with 4 seats. BBB’s seize in the senate therefore increase the odds that they will be invited to join a future coalition government.
For a majority in the parliament, 76 seats are required. Although various parties have been sceptical of forming a coalition together with the PVV, Wilders will have to look at two of the other three large parties: GroenLinks/PvdA, VVD, and NSC. Based on comments and ideological differences, GroenLinks/PvdA is ruled out which makes a right-wing coalition with VVD and NSC (81 seats) most likely. If you add BBB to this picture – which is attractive due to the position in the senate – the coalition would have 88 seats. However, in the senate this coalition would have 30 seats which is below the required majority of 38 seats. This would limit the coalition’s policy ambitions.
As the PVV was the clear winner of the elections, the initiative for the formation process is with them, which in itself could speed up the process. Still as NSC and VVD have expressed concerns regarding some aspects of the PVV party programme, a complicated negotiation process might still happen. Indeed, VVD has recently suggested that it would not join any future cabinet, but rather support the coalition as a sleeping partner. In any case, 2024 will be well under way before a new cabinet will be installed.
What do the manifestos tell us about future climate policy?
To assess what climate policy would look like under such a coalition government, below we summarise the main points from the policy programmes published before the elections.
Partij van Vrijheid (PVV)
The current Climate Law, which today has committed the Netherlands to reduce carbon emission by 55% in 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2050 plus has specific roadmaps for sectors and set aside financial means and subsidies for the energy transition, should be scrapped according to the PVV. On the renewable generation side, there should be no room for additional large scale wind and solar power development. There should be a swift roll-out of nuclear power, while coal and gas-powered electricity plants should remain open. Residential buildings should continue to be able to rely on natural gas for heating, with no mandatory switch to heat-pumps. To secure natural gas, the country should strike long-term LNG deals & stimulate further exploration of gas in the North Sea.
Volkspartij Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD)
The VVD actually agrees with the PVV with regards to nuclear power and drilling new wells in the North Sea for gas security. It did not explicitly mention closing coal fired power plants, suggesting that this could be open for discussion. This would then be difficult to reconcile with continuing with the agreed climate plan, which also includes a CO2 tax for (heavy) fossil fuel users. Four new nuclear plants should be built and several modular ones as well. Meanwhile, off-shore wind should be continuously stimulated. Finally, the VVD would like to prioritize insulation of the built environment (homes), for which it is willing to provide subsidies.
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC)
NSC, like the PVV and VVD, is also a fan of nuclear power but limits the newbuild to 2 reactors, next to extending the existing operation at Borselle. On LNG contracts and North Sea exploration, it shares the same views as the PVV. Like the VVD, NSC also still favours wind power, but it is no fan of having further on-shore development of renewables. NSC also favours scrapping the financial component in the Dutch Climate Law, called ‘Klimaatfonds’, worth EUR 35bn.
Boeren Burger Beweging (BBB)
The BBB has similar proposals to the PVV/VVD/NSC, except that it wishes to continue the financial component in the Climate Law and prefers to use farming as a way to generate renewable energy (such as biogas being produced as by product) or as way of carbon storage (redirect industrial CO2 to greenhouses for vegetables). Also renewables on land, especially on farming land, are discouraged and Dutch ambitions on climate should be regularly benchmarked against peers to ensure a fair level playing field.
Climate and energy policy set to change in the Netherlands
It seems that the earmarked coalition partners have quite some overlap in their energy and climate policy agendas. Especially in the area of nuclear power, continued use of natural gas (and maybe even coal) and a slowdown or halting renewable energy development. A ramp-up of nuclear power will take time, which then obviously means that without a commensurate ramp-up in renewables the Netherlands will continue to rely on fossil fuels for heating and power. The main disagreement is that while NSC and VVD would like to stick to earlier agreed carbon reduction targets enshrined in the Climate Law, while the larger PVV is a seriously against this. It seems like the Netherlands will take a different direction in tackling the energy transition. Overall, climate ambition seems set to weaken under a new Dutch government.