Dutch Economy in Focus – Growth further down

Dutch economic growth will decelerate to 1.3% this year and to 1.1% in 2020. GDP growth will thus be lower than we previously thought – particularly in 2020. The recent worsening of the trade war prompted us to reduce our forecasts. Exports are weakening due to the meagre expansion of world trade. The increase in private consumption will fall sharply, mainly because of the moderation in disposable income growth, but also due to lower consumer confidence. Business investment will lose momentum due to the less favourable sales outlook. The escalating trade war will further undermine business confidence and depress investment, particularly next year. Accelerating government spending will act as a partial counterbalance. Unemployment is now lower than during the last economic boom. However, the slowing economy will dampen jobs growth and unemployment will rise again – notably next year.