Dutch GDP surpasses pre-Covid levels but new restrictions will dampen activity in Q4
Dutch third quarter GDP growth came in at 1.9% q/q (consensus: 1.6%, ABN: 2.2%). A normalization after the 2nd quarter growth of 3.8% was to be expected as the catch-up effects in consumption fade.
Private and public consumption were still the main drivers of growth whereas investment, faced with supply bottlenecks and tight labour markets, decreased compared to the previous quarter. Newly announced Covid-measures such as a mild three week lockdown coupled with ongoing disruptions from international supply bottlenecks mean that activity will be constrained considerably in the fourth quarter. We expect flat quarterly growth which will translate into a yearly growth of 4.4% for 2021. We continue to expect above trend growth in 2022, although the risks to consumption are somewhat tilted to the downside due to the recent rise in energy prices.