Emerging Europe Outlook 2019: Autumn is coming

We expect a substantial slowdown in Emerging Europe, mainly driven by a recession in Turkey and we anticipate a marginal slowdown in growth for the CEE region from 2018, along with a ‘muddling through’ scenario for both Ukraine and Russia. Inflation will remain largely in check and monetary policy therefore accommodative. Both Poland and Romania must watch their public finances in light of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. The relationship between the European Union, Hungary and Poland remains problematic, although we expect a more constructive attitude from Emerging European states in light of the new EU funding round. Brexit will have little impact on Emerging Europe.