Emerging Europe Watch – Resilience to a global slowdown?

Growth for the CEE-3 is strong, not so for Russia and Turkey. CEE-3 is vulnerable to a reversal of FDI-flows, Turkey for shifts in portfolio flows. The direct impact of the US-China trade war for the region is low, but indirect effects via eurozone imports can be substantial. CEE-3 has little room for monetary stimulus; Russia and Turkey will continue easing. Czech Republic and Russia still have ample room for fiscal support.