ESG Economist - EU: Road to 2030 climate targets still bumpy
Europe is striving to do its part in the effort to limit global warming. The first hurdle on the road to meeting the target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 is meeting the EU climate and energy targets for 2030. The next hurdle is setting new intermediate targets for 2040. It is likely that chances of successfully setting a credible and sufficient 2040 target are influenced by the chances of meeting the 2030 target, as climate action will have to be stepped up during the period 2030-2040 in case the 2030 targets were missed. This note focuses on the probabilities of meeting the 2030 targets, based on the European Commission’s evaluation of the latest National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the individual Member States.
The EC has reported that the EU is nearing its 2030 climate and energy targets, a crucial step as new targets for 2040 need to be set soon and the timeframe to achieve Net-Zero by 2050 is gradually diminishing
The EC’s quantitative evaluation of the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) shows that reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and usage of renewable energy are expected to be slightly below target, although the gap in energy efficiency remains significant
We have also studied the EC’s qualitative evaluation of the NECPs by implementing textual analysis through natural language processing techniques …
… showing that the majority of the EC’s prior recommendations had not been fully addressed and that the EC’s sentiment and tone about the dimension ‘Decarbonisation’ is negative and bearish
Therefore it seems that complete and prompt execution of the NECPs could lag and that the 2030 targets might not be met …
… suggesting intensified policy measures are needed in the following years, raising the risk of a disorderly transition scenario