Global Monthly – Just how much pent-up demand is there?

We launch a new look Global Monthly containing a global theme as well as short regional updates. The shape of the global recovery will in large part depend on the extent to which consumers will spend the massive build-up in savings. This will drive a significant rebound in consumption… but it will likely be tempered by the skew in savings to higher earners, and elevated unemployment. Meanwhile, global trade and industry continue to be the major bright spot in the global economy. Regional updates: in the eurozone, the economy has entered a double-dip recession ahead of the recovery in H2, while in the Netherlands we write about the implications of the delay to coalition talks. In the US, we raised our Q1 GDP forecast, and see upside risks to our 5.8% 2021 growth projection. We also raised our growth forecast for China, but see signs of a turn in the credit cycle.